Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a stronger open, rising 43 points (+0.49%), despite renewed geopolitical tensions after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed over the weekend.
• US markets closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.42%, the Nasdaq gaining 0.29%, and the Dow Jones advancing 0.29% as technology and semiconductor stocks extended their recent gains.
• Commodity markets weakened, with gold declining 0.97% to US$4,121.05/oz, copper easing 0.56% to US$6.20/lb and WTI crude oil falling 0.93% to US$71.41/bbl, despite Brent crude jumping around 4.5% in early Monday trade.
• SK Hynix remained the key focus after surging around 14% in its Nasdaq debut following its US$26.5 billion IPO, while Nvidia rallied around 4% and Micron announced plans to increase its US semiconductor investment to more than US$250 billion through 2035.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly positive performance, supported by gains across major US, European and Asian equity markets. The S&P 500 led the US indices, rising 0.42% to 7,575.00, while the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones each gained 0.29% to 26,282.00 and 52,637.00, respectively. European markets remained firm, with the FTSE 100 advancing 0.24%. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite also rose 0.30%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.20%, while India's benchmark index advanced 1.08%, reflecting strong regional market sentiment. However, New Zealand's NZX 50 declined 0.84%, underperforming its regional peers amid broader market strength.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight. Uranium gained 1.17%, reflecting continued strength across the nuclear fuel market, while gold declined 0.97% as safe-haven demand softened. WTI crude oil fell 0.93%, indicating weaker sentiment across energy markets, while copper slipped 0.56% on softer industrial metals demand. Silver also weakened, declining 1.76%, reflecting broad selling across precious metals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 0.68% as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields delivered a mixed performance as investors continued to assess the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Australia's 10-year government bond yield rose 0.031 bps to 4.872%, reflecting expectations that domestic borrowing costs may remain elevated. Japan's 10-year government bond yield declined 0.114 bps to 2.765%, although it remained elevated amid expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. US Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield falling 0.016 bps to 4.585%, while the 30-year yield increased 0.014 bps to 5.084%, indicating that investors continue to expect long-term borrowing costs to remain elevated.Key Drivers

• US equities ended the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 (+0.42%), Dow Jones (+0.29%) and Nasdaq (+0.29%) advancing as strength in materials and technology offset weakness in healthcare.
• Commodity markets traded mixed, with copper easing 0.56% to US$6.20/lb, gold falling 0.97% to US$4,121.05/oz and WTI crude oil slipping 0.93% to US$71.41/bbl, while concerns over Middle East tensions kept energy markets in focus.
• Asian markets closed broadly higher, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+1.20%), India's Nifty 50 (+1.08%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.60%), reflecting resilient regional investor sentiment.
• Geopolitical risks remained elevated after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and the US launched a third wave of strikes, while diplomatic efforts led by Oman continued to seek a revival of US-Iran negotiations.
• AI-related semiconductor stocks remained in focus, with SK Hynix surging in its Nasdaq debut, Nvidia extending its rally and Micron outlining plans to increase its US semiconductor investment to more than US$250 billion through 2035.
• Vodafone rallied 12.5% after French billionaire Xavier Niel acquired a 16% stake worth around US$5.9 billion, making him the UK telecom group's largest shareholder and fuelling speculation over future strategic changes.
• Central bank developments remained on investors' radar after Kevin Warsh announced plans to overhaul the Federal Reserve with new advisory task forces, signalling the potential for future policy and governance changes.
• Economic data presented a mixed outlook, with China removing its long-standing urban jobs target, Japan's wholesale inflation accelerating above 7%, and elevated US fuel prices highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures.
• Investors also monitored corporate activity, including BHP's review of Chilean infrastructure assets, expectations of a potential Coles-Greencross transaction, and improving sentiment across commodity-linked sectors as copper and steel-related ETFs outperformed.

ASX Company News

• GQG Partners Inc. (ASX: GQG): GQG Partners reported Funds Under Management (FUM) of US$156.0 billion as at 30 June 2026, following net outflows of US$3.2 billion during June and US$15.1 billion for the first half of 2026. Positive investment performance of US$7.2 billion partially offset the first-half outflows, while the company noted that all investment strategies generated positive absolute returns despite underperforming their respective benchmarks in the current market environment. GQG also highlighted that its strategies delivered double-digit net returns over the three years to 30 June 2026 and reaffirmed its disciplined focus on long-term capital compounding, downside risk management and fee generation predominantly linked to assets under management rather than performance fees.
• Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (ASX: CHI): Channel Infrastructure advanced the redevelopment of the Marsden Point Energy Precinct by agreeing to sell and remove the decommissioned CCR Platformer unit, generating net proceeds of US$5.95 million while eliminating approximately NZ$3 million of associated demolition costs. The company also confirmed that the proposed Marsden Point Biorefinery has expanded its scope to include fertiliser production alongside sustainable aviation fuel and biodiesel, following Ballance Agri-Nutrients joining the Seadra-led consortium. The project is expected to mobilise more than NZ$1 billion of private investment and produce up to 400 million litres of renewable fuels annually, strengthening New Zealand's fuel security and domestic manufacturing capability.
• Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL): Regis Resources confirmed it will not submit a counterproposal for Vault Minerals after the Vault Board determined Genesis Minerals' competing offer constituted a superior proposal under the existing Scheme Implementation Deed. The Board stated that matching the Genesis proposal would not satisfy Regis' disciplined value and return thresholds for growth opportunities, reinforcing its commitment to long-term shareholder value creation. Regis also highlighted its strong financial position, supported by a debt-free balance sheet, approximately AU$1.2 billion in cash and bullion, robust free cash flow generation and a pipeline of organic growth opportunities, including the recently updated McPhillamys Gold Project following completion of its Pre-Feasibility Study.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• Beacon Minerals (ASX: BCN) – $0.255
• Collins Foods (ASX: CKF) – $0.15
• QUBE Holdings (ASX: QUB) – $0.346
• Sandon Capital (ASX: SNC) – $0.005
• Turners Automotive (ASX: TRA) – $0.074

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• No major economic announcements are scheduled today, with the Australian economic calendar remaining relatively quiet.
• Investors are expected to remain focused on developments in the Middle East, as escalating US-Iran tensions continue to influence global risk sentiment, bond yields and energy prices.
• Market participants will also monitor movements in crude oil and commodity prices, with higher energy costs likely to remain a key driver of inflation expectations and broader market direction.

Summary 

•  ASX 200 futures point to a stronger open, supported by gains across US equity markets despite renewed geopolitical tensions following Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
• US markets finished higher, led by technology and semiconductor stocks, while Japan and India also posted solid gains, reflecting resilient global investor sentiment.
• Commodity markets were mixed, with uranium advancing while gold, copper, silver and WTI crude oil declined, as investors balanced softer safe-haven demand against ongoing Middle East risks.
• AI-related semiconductor stocks remained in focus after SK Hynix's strong Nasdaq debut, with Nvidia extending its rally and Micron expanding its long-term US semiconductor investment plans.
• Geopolitical developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate market attention, with investors closely monitoring potential impacts on global energy supply, inflation expectations and financial markets.
• With no major economic data scheduled today, market direction is expected to be driven primarily by geopolitical developments, commodity price movements and corporate news flow.

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