Markets Today (22 October 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. ASX Outlook

The index is trading lower at 9,036.0, down 58.7 points or 0.65%. Investor sentiment is a bit cautious today, especially after a weak lead from commodities and some mixed signals from the US overnight.

2. Overnight US Markets:

In the US, the results were quite mixed overnight:

• S&P 500: flat at 6,735 (no change).
• Dow Jones: gained +0.47% to 46,925, continuing its recent strength.
• NASDAQ Composite: slipped -0.16%, showing weakness in tech stocks.
• Russell 2000: fell -0.49%, indicating small-cap stocks were under pressure

Value stocks — companies that trade at lower prices compared to their earnings — did well, while tech-heavy and growth sectors like the NASDAQ lagged behind.

3. US Sector Performance

Winners:

• Consumer Discretionary (up +1.32%) — meaning retailers and car makers did well.
• Industrials (+0.88%) and Health Care (+0.21%) also saw modest gains.

 Losers:

• Utilities (-0.99%)
• Communication Services (-0.85%)
• Materials (-0.70%)
• Real Estate (-0.36%)

Gold and silver prices plunged, mainly because investors took profits after recent highs. Canadian gold mining ETFs fell nearly 10% overnight, which could signal similar weakness here in Australia.

Netflix shares fell more than 5% after missing expectations in its third-quarter earnings — this hurt sentiment in the broader tech space.

Value stocks like banks and industrials held up better, helping the Dow Jones move closer to the 47,000 mark.

4. Commodities

It was a tough night for most commodities:

• Gold: dropped 5.36% to $4,124.4, its sharpest fall in months.
• Silver: fell 7.20% to $48.66.
• Copper: also fell 2.02% to $4.91, as traders took profits after a recent rally.
• WTI Oil: the exception, up 0.93% to $57.58, showing some recovery in energy demand.

Gold and copper — key indicators of investor confidence and industrial strength — both fell sharply, which could weigh on mining and materials stocks today. Oil, on the other hand, is showing steady improvement.

5. What to Watch Today (ASX Focus)

Two key local stories are in focus this morning:

• Australia’s critical minerals industry has welcomed a major rare earths deal between the US and Australia.
  Analysts say this agreement will strengthen supply chains outside of China, which is significant because rare earths are vital for electronics, batteries, and defense technology.
• Regional Express (Rex Airlines) has found a buyer after spending more than a year under voluntary administration. This marks a positive step for Australia’s regional aviation sector.

6. Broker Move:

• Qoria (QOR): Buy rating maintained, with a target price raised to 91 cents (Goldman Sachs).
• South32 (S32): Buy rating maintained, with a target price raised to $3.75 (Jefferies).

7. Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

Today, stocks trading ex-dividend include:

• GQG Partners (GQG): $0.04
• WAM Alternative Assets (WMA): $0.03

Ex-dividend” means if you buy these shares today, you won’t receive the upcoming dividend.

Our take at Kapitales Research:

ASX is starting the day weaker, following a mixed US session and a big sell-off in precious metals.

Commodities are driving the tone — gold and copper are sharply lower, while oil is slightly higher.

Locally, sentiment may stay cautious, but the rare earths deal with the US could provide some long-term optimism for the resource sector.

Watch for moves in gold miners, energy stocks, and value-driven names.

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