ASX 200 expected to open lower

1. ASX 200 expected to open lower

The ASX 200 is set to start weaker, with futures down 8 points (-0.09%) at 8:30 am AEST. This follows a negative close on Wall Street last Friday, where the Dow slipped 0.20%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15%, led by losses in tech stocks including Dell and Nvidia.

2. US markets closed, Europe and commodities in focus

US markets were closed overnight for Labour Day, meaning all moves are based on Friday’s session. In Europe, sentiment improved with the Stoxx 600 bouncing after five straight sessions of losses. Commodities continued to shine – gold pushed towards the key US$3,500/oz level, while silver broke above US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, underlining strong demand for safe-haven assets.

3. Local market wrap

On Monday, the ASX 200 closed down 45.4 points or 0.51% to 8,927.7, led lower by sharp falls in Generation Development Group (-8.7%) and Mesoblast (-7.3%). The index is now down 0.5% over the past week and sits 1.4% below its 52-week high.

4. Corporate earnings in focus

Today’s earnings calendar is quieter, but investors will be watching Graincorp and Collins Foods after recent sector momentum. Updates from these companies will provide insight into consumer trends and agricultural trade flows.

5. Commodities – strong night for precious metals

Precious metals surged, with gold closing at US$3,477/oz (+0.85%) and silver up 2.5% to US$40.6/oz, its strongest level in 14 years. Platinum and palladium also gained around 2.7%. Brent crude added 1% to US$68 a barrel, holding within its recent US$65–70 range amid geopolitical tensions.

6. Ex Dividend Date

On the dividend front, stocks trading ex-dividend include Apiam Animal Health, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Domino’s, Endeavour Group, Iluka Resources, Northern Star, Ramsay Health Care, Santos, Sigma Healthcare, Sonic Healthcare, and Southern Cross Media, among othersGold climbed +0.9% to US$3,447/oz, breaking through technical resistance.

Macro data to watch includes:

• 7:00 pm AEST – Eurozone Inflation (Aug)
• 12:00 am AEST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Kapitales Research Take

We expect the ASX 200 to open slightly weaker today, with sentiment constrained by Wall Street’s negative lead from Friday and a heavy slate of ex-dividends locally. Tech weakness in the US, particularly Dell’s soft outlook and profit-taking in Nvidia, continues to weigh on risk appetite. However, the standout story remains commodities, where precious metals are powering ahead — gold edging toward US$3,500 and silver at 14-year highs are likely to provide strong support for local miners. While the broader index may drift, commodity strength could offer a buffer and create selective opportunities in resources.

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