ASX 200 Preview: Futures Flat, Earnings and Ex-Dividends Dominate; U.S. GDP Ahead

1. ASX Futures Indicate a Steady Open

The ASX 200 closed 24.9 points higher (+0.28%) at 8,960.5 yesterday, supported by strong gains in Tabcorp and Siteminder. SPI futures are flat near 8,938, suggesting a steady open as investors weigh local earnings, a large ex-dividend list, and tonight’s U.S. GDP data.

2. Wall Street Posts Modest Gains

Overnight, U.S. equities edged higher:

Dow Jones +0.32% to 45,565

S&P 500 +0.24% to 6,481

Nasdaq +0.21% to 21,590

Sectors were led by Energy (+1.2%), Technology (+0.5%), and Real Estate (+0.4%), while Industrials, Healthcare, and Communication Services dipped slightly. Energy shares benefited from a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

On the corporate side, Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q2 results but flagged uncertainty about chip sales to China, as U.S. restrictions on its H20 chips weighed on data center revenue. The company excluded China shipments from its forward guidance, a move that tempered the market’s reaction despite otherwise upbeat results.

3. Commodity Watch

Oil (Brent) rose to US$67.2/bbl, lifted by a larger-than-expected U.S. crude stock draw (–2.4m barrels vs –1.7m forecast).

Gold held at US$3,389/oz, supported by safe-haven demand.

Uranium miners extended their rally, with the junior index up more than 6% this week.

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus

A heavy slate of results today includes Wesfarmers (WES), Qantas (QAN), Medibank Private (MPL), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), South32 (S32), TPG Telecom (TPG), Ramsay Health Care (RHC), Atlas Arteria (ALX), and Harvey Norman (HVN). These will provide insights across consumer, travel, resources, healthcare, and infrastructure.

5. Ex-Dividend Watch

A long list of stocks trade ex-dividend today, which could weigh on the index. Key names include Woodside Energy (WDS), REA Group (REA), 360 Capital Group (TGP), Australian United Investments (AUI), Beach Energy (BPT), and Ventia Services (VNT).

6. Macro Economic Data:

No major Australian data is due today. Globally, the key release will be U.S. Q2 GDP at 10:30 pm AEST. A stronger print may dampen September rate-cut expectations, while weaker growth could reinforce the easing narrative.

7. Kapitales Research Take

The ASX 200 is likely to open steady, with corporate earnings and ex-dividends setting the local tone. Wall Street managed modest gains overnight, but Nvidia’s cautious guidance on China highlights ongoing trade and tech risks. Commodities remain supportive, and tonight’s U.S. GDP release will be the key global catalyst heading into the weekend.

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