ASX 200 Preview: Futures Point Lower as Weak US Lead, GDP in Focus

1. ASX Futures Indicate a Softer Open

The ASX 200 closed Tuesday down 27.1 points (-0.30%) to 8,900.6, slipping below its 20-day moving average. Bapcor (–4.3%) and Reece (–4.1%) were the weakest performers. Over the past five days, the index is down 0.39% and currently sits 1.7% below its 52-week high.

This morning, SPI futures are pointing 26 points lower to 8,874, suggesting the local market will open in the red. The softer lead follows weakness on Wall Street, where all three major indices finished lower overnight.

2. Wall Street Posts Modest Gains

US equities retreated as caution set in before major macro releases due later this week.

Dow Jones –0.55% to 45,296

S&P 500 –0.69% to 6,416

Nasdaq –0.82% to 21,280

Losses were broad, led by declines in real estate, industrials, and tech, as investors cut risk exposure at the start of September, historically one of the weakest months for equities.

Wall Street declined as investors weighed the impact of a federal court ruling. The court found that most of President Trump's tariffs imposed under emergency powers (IEEPA) were beyond his legal authority and effectively illegal, though they remain temporarily intact pending appeal—raising concerns over potential multi-billion-dollar refunds and heightened uncertainty.

3. Commodity Watch

Silver surged (~+2.65%) to around US$37.15/oz, and gold miners rose (~+2.58%) as investors sought safe havens.

Copper miners edged up (~+0.68%), while uranium and lithium/battery tech fell (–0.12% and –1.37%).

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus

No Earnings today.

5. Ex-Dividend Watch

A number of major companies trade ex-dividend today, which may weigh on the index. These include:

Australian Ethical Investment, Downer Edi, Ebos Group, Evolution Mining, Fenix Resources, Hitech Group Australia, Humm Group, Integrated Research, Mercury NZ, Monadelphous, Netwealth, Newmont, Origin Energy, Pro Medicus, Seek.

6. Macro Economic Data:

Australia Ai Group Industry Index (Aug) – 9:00 am AEST

Australia Q2 GDP Growth – 11:30 am AEST

US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) – 12:00 am AEST.

7. Kapitales Research Take

The legal blow to Trump’s tariff strategy is sending shockwaves through markets—raising the spectre of large refund payouts and deepening trade policy uncertainty. This, combined with a heavy ex-dividend list, sets a cautious tone for the ASX at the open. However, Australia’s impending GDP data remains critical—strong growth could steady the ship and influence RBA expectations. Meanwhile, ongoing appetite for gold and silver signals continued defensive positioning amid global unease.

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