Brent Crude Hits Lowest Level Since May on Ceasefire Hopes

Highlights:

• Brent crude fell to US$65.87 a barrel at 12pm, the lowest since May.
• Talks between US, Russian, Ukrainian, and European leaders spark hopes of easing tensions.
• India’s tariffs on Russian oil imports set to double on 27 August, adding market uncertainty.

Oil Prices Retreat

Brent crude prices slipped to US$65.87 a barrel at 12pm, marking the lowest level since late May. At the time of writing, the benchmark oil price continues to face downward pressure as diplomatic talks among world leaders raise the possibility of easing tensions in the Ukraine conflict.

Diplomatic Developments

Recent meetings between global leaders have shaped market sentiment. US President Donald Trump

and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on 15 August, followed by discussions on 18 August involving the United States, Ukraine, and European counterparts. While no concrete breakthrough has been achieved, the talks are seen as early signals of a potential pathway toward de-escalation. Analysts note that although the peace process remains complicated—given Ukraine and Russia’s divergent positions—the oil market is reacting quickly to even tentative signs of progress.

Supply and Sanction Dynamics

A ceasefire could open the door for additional Russian oil supplies to flow into global markets. However, Western sanctions are unlikely to ease without a comprehensive and enforceable agreement, according to analysts. Another factor weighing on oil sentiment is India’s trade policy. From 27 August, tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil are set to rise from 25% to 50%. Analysts argue that these tariffs could be rolled back more easily if substantial progress is made toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Indian refiners remain cautious, balancing the benefits of discounted Russian crude with the risk of higher import costs under the new tariff regime.

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