Market Alert: Ukraine Conflict Update and U.S. Policy Risk
Highlights:
Market Cheers Better-Than-Feared Numbers
Shares of IDP Education Limited (ASX: IEL) soared nearly 28% to $5.81 at the time of writing, after the release of its FY25 results. While the numbers reflected a deterioration from last year, the outcome was better than the market had braced for, sparking strong buying interest. The rebound comes after a punishing year for IDP, which was the worst-performing stock on the ASX 200 in FY25. Today’s rally has given long-suffering investors some relief, even as the company remains well below past highs.
FY25 Results Under Pressure
Revenue dropped 14% year-on-year to $882.2 million, as concurrent policy restrictions across its four key education markets hit demand. Student placements fell 29% and language testing volumes slid 18%, though modest price increases provided some cushion. Adjusted EBIT came in at $119.0 million, down 48% from FY24, but in line with management’s June guidance range of $115–$125 million. Cost discipline also played a role, with direct costs falling 6% and overheads trimmed by 5%.
Transformation and Outlook
Looking ahead, management has launched a multi-year transformation program focused on efficiency and profitability. For FY26, EBIT is expected to remain within the same guidance range of $115–$125 million, with testing volumes forecast to decline a further 20%–30%. CEO Tennalle O’Shannessy stressed that while near-term challenges persist, the company remains well positioned for the long term: “Our market-leading position, clear strategy, and transformation program give us confidence in capturing profitable growth in the years ahead.”
Share Price Snapshot
Despite today’s surge, IDP shares remain under heavy pressure, down 52% year-to-date and 62% lower over the past 12 months. From a peak near $39 in 2021, the stock has shed around 85%, reflecting the scale of the challenges it faces.
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