Market Alert: Trump-Xi APEC Summit a Critical Test for Global Trade Stability
Highlights:
Major shift in global currency dynamics gains momentum
For decades, the United States dollar has been the dominant global currency — the backbone of international trade, reserves and financial power. But that dominance is now facing growing pressure. The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) along with expanding members are actively exploring non-dollar payment systems and local currency settlements.
The India-China-Russia Triangle & Digital RMB
In recent years, India has sought to settle more trade in Indian rupees and other local currencies — notably for its Russian oil imports — partly bypassing the dollar. Meanwhile, China is advancing its central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital Renminbi (e-CNY), as a tool for cross-border payments and currency internationalisation. These moves combine to fuel an ascent of de-dollarisation — the shift away from dollar-dependence.
Payment Systems & Technical Barriers
The BRICS-driven alternative infrastructure — such as the proposed BRICS Pay and other national settlement platforms — seek to facilitate local-currency or digital currency trade between member states. However, progress remains uneven: regulatory divergence, capital-flow controls, currency convertibility and trust among partners continue to slow full implementation.
Is the Dollar Really Under Threat?
At the time of writing, the US dollar remains dominant in global reserves, trade invoicing and FX transactions. Scholars caution that while de-dollarisation is gathering momentum, a wholesale replacement of the dollar is far from immediate.
Why It Matters
Bottom line: The intersection of BRICS ambition, India’s local-currency trade strategy and China’s e-Renminbi rollout points to a real de-dollarisation trend. But at the time of writing, the dollar’s primacy remains intact — the transformation is incremental, not revolutionary.
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