Is Fading Peace Hope Between Russia and Ukraine About to Push Oil Even Higher?
Source: Kapitales Research
Highlights:
Brent crude rose 1.1% to US$63.31, lifted by fading expectations of a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement.
ANZ warned that peace negotiations are the biggest swing factor for oil, with potential supply impacts of more than 2 million barrels per day.
Three scenarios outlined by ANZ include a prolonged stalemate, tougher sanctions risking up to 1 million barrels per day of disruption, or a peace breakthrough that could briefly push Brent below US$60.
Oil Prices Tick Up as Diplomatic Optimism Fades
Crude oil prices moved higher after ANZ Banking Group Limited (ASX: ANZ) signalled that the chances of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine have weakened. At the time of writing, ANZ said that President Vladimir Putin has rejected several key elements of a US-backed peace proposal ahead of fresh negotiations scheduled to take place in Florida.
Peace Talks Now the Biggest Wildcard for Oil Markets
According to ANZ, expectations around the peace process remain the most influential factor shaping oil’s future path. The bank believes that depending on how talks unfold, global supply could swing by more than 2 million barrels per day—a shift large enough to reshape the global energy landscape.
ANZ has outlined three possible scenarios:
A prolonged stalemate, which would likely keep Brent crude above US$60 per barrel, although gains could be capped as the market heads toward a surplus in 2026.
Tougher sanctions on Russia, potentially removing up to 1 million barrels per day of supply.
A breakthrough peace agreement, which could result in US sanctions being lifted on Russian oil firms—initially pulling Brent below US$60, before any OPEC response pushes prices higher again.
Market Reaction: Prices Edge Upward
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.1% higher at US$63.31 a barrel, with traders reassessing supply risks and geopolitical outcomes. The market remains highly sensitive to headline
shifts, and with negotiations still fluid, volatility is expected to persist.
What Comes Next?
Energy analysts say all eyes are now on Florida’s talks. If the discussions show any sign of progress—or collapse—oil markets may see swift and sharp movements.
Disclaimer for Kapitales Research
The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.
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Is Fading Peace Hope Between Russia and Ukraine About to Push Oil Even Higher?
Highlights:
Oil Prices Tick Up as Diplomatic Optimism Fades
Crude oil prices moved higher after ANZ Banking Group Limited (ASX: ANZ) signalled that the chances of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine have weakened. At the time of writing, ANZ said that President Vladimir Putin has rejected several key elements of a US-backed peace proposal ahead of fresh negotiations scheduled to take place in Florida.
Peace Talks Now the Biggest Wildcard for Oil Markets
According to ANZ, expectations around the peace process remain the most influential factor shaping oil’s future path. The bank believes that depending on how talks unfold, global supply could swing by more than 2 million barrels per day—a shift large enough to reshape the global energy landscape.
ANZ has outlined three possible scenarios:
Market Reaction: Prices Edge Upward
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.1% higher at US$63.31 a barrel, with traders reassessing supply risks and geopolitical outcomes. The market remains highly sensitive to headline
shifts, and with negotiations still fluid, volatility is expected to persist.
What Comes Next?
Energy analysts say all eyes are now on Florida’s talks. If the discussions show any sign of progress—or collapse—oil markets may see swift and sharp movements.
Disclaimer for Kapitales Research
The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Customer Notice:
Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.
Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au