Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a marginally weaker opening, down 3 points amid subdued US market sentiment.
• S&P 500 ends largely unchanged as gains in energy stocks offset weakness in major technology names.
• Nvidia targets AI infrastructure expansion through agreements with six major global asset managers.
• Brent crude jumps around 6% to US$87 per barrel amid renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil-driven inflation risks return to focus, raising fresh concerns over the outlook for US interest rates.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded with a mixed bias as investors balanced resilient corporate fundamentals against renewed geopolitical and inflation concerns. US equities closed marginally lower, with technology stocks leading the weakness as investors reassessed elevated AI-related valuations and capital-spending commitments. Higher crude oil prices amid uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz also revived concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.UK equities declined as the sharp rise in energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on broader risk appetite. Canadian equities outperformed modestly, supported by their relatively high exposure to energy and commodity-linked companies as crude prices strengthened. New Zealand equities also advanced, reflecting comparatively resilient regional sentiment. Japanese equities were the clear outperformer, driven by strong buying in AI, semiconductor and technology-related stocks. Meanwhile, Indian equities finished broadly flat as selective buying was offset by cautious positioning amid mixed global cues.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets reflected a clear shift toward defensive positioning amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Gold strengthened as investors increased exposure to traditional safe-haven assets. Silver advanced strongly, supported by increased defensive buying alongside resilient demand from industrial applications. WTI crude recorded the strongest move, driven by renewed concerns over the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attached conditions to its reopening, increasing the perceived risk of supply disruptions. Copper advanced modestly, extending recent strength as structural demand from electrification, power infrastructure and data-centre investment continued to support sentiment. Uranium remained broadly stable, indicating a relatively balanced market after recent gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin declined, reflecting weaker risk appetite as investors shifted toward conventional defensive assets amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.Bond Yields

Bond markets remained under pressure as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Australian 10-year yields moved higher, reflecting persistent domestic inflation concerns and a broader repricing of interest-rate expectations. US Treasury yields also increased across longer maturities as the sharp rebound in oil prices renewed inflation concerns, partly offsetting the impact of softer labour-market data and reinforcing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Japanese 10-year yields remained elevated, supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan could tighten policy further if yen weakness continues to lift import costs and inflation. Overall, global bond markets continue to reflect concerns that persistent inflation, elevated energy prices and restrictive monetary policy could keep borrowing costs higher for longer.Key Drivers

• S&P 500 slipped 0.06%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.32% as technology stocks weighed on US markets.
• Brent crude surged around 5–6% to ~US$87/bbl, driven by uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.70%, adding valuation pressure on growth and technology stocks.
• Nvidia partnered with six major asset managers to mobilise more than US$500 billion for AI infrastructure.
• Intel announced a potential US$15 billion equity offering, sending its shares down more than 4%.
• Big Tech debt issuance remains elevated, with Amazon carrying roughly US$120 billion and Oracle around US$115 billion of debt.
• JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800, citing improving monetisation of AI capex.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic fell sharply, with crossings declining from 15 on Friday to six on Sunday, reinforcing supply concerns.
• BOJ tightening expectations strengthened, with policymakers signalling scope for faster rate increases amid inflation and yen weakness.
• TSMC monthly sales jumped 45%, reinforcing continued strength in AI-related semiconductor demand.
• RBA policy remains in focus, with persistent inflation keeping markets alert to further monetary tightening.

ASX Company News

• SGH Limited (ASX: SGH) delivered FY26 underlying EBIT of AU$1,554 million, up 1%, with the EBIT margin expanding 40 bps to 14.7%. However, revenue declined 2% and underlying NPAT remained broadly flat, while EBIT from Coates, Energy and Media fell 7%, 21% and 30%, respectively. The FY27 outlook remains subdued, with management expecting flat to low single-digit EBIT growth.
• Life360, Inc. (ASX: 360) reported record Q2 2026 revenue of US$159.0 million, up 38% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA increased 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached approximately 102.4 million, with paying circles rising 27% to 3.2 million. FY26 revenue guidance stands at US$650 million–US$685 million.
• Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) reached an agreement with Barrick Mining to contribute Barrick’s Fourmile and Newmont’s Fiberline and Mike developments into the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Newmont will provide US$1.95 billion in consideration to Barrick, while the agreement resolves all outstanding JV disputes and includes Newmont’s consent to Barrick’s proposed North American gold assets IPO.
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH) secured an AU$406.2 million, five-year underground mining services contract at the Snowy River Gold Project in New Zealand. The contract is scheduled to commence in October 2026 and covers mine development, production and backfill operations, while first gold from the project is targeted for December 2026

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• RBA Decision – 2:30 pm AEST: The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, with its inflation assessment and policy guidance in focus.
• NAB Business Confidence – 11:30 am AEST: The release will provide a fresh read on business sentiment, operating conditions and cost pressures.
• Energy in Focus: Oil’s ~6% overnight rally could support ASX energy stocks amid persistent US-Iran tensions and supply concerns.
• Earnings Watch: Results from Amotiv, Helia, Centuria Industrial REIT, Chrysos, Life360, SGH and Southern Cross Media could drive stock-specific moves.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a slightly softer open, down 3 points amid subdued sentiment across US markets.
• S&P 500 closed broadly flat, while the Nasdaq fell 0.32% amid weakness in major technology stocks.
• Brent crude surged ~6% to ~US$87/bbl, as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty intensified global supply concerns.
• US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.70%, increasing valuation pressure on growth and technology equities.
• Gold gained 1.10% and silver advanced 3.49%, reflecting stronger safe-haven demand.
• Bitcoin declined 1.69%, as geopolitical uncertainty reduced appetite for risk-sensitive assets.
• Nvidia partnered with six major asset managers to mobilise more than US$500 billion for AI infrastructure.
• TSMC monthly sales surged 45%, highlighting continued strength in global AI semiconductor demand.
• JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800, citing improving AI capex monetisation.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped sharply, reinforcing concerns over potential disruption to global energy flows.
• BOJ tightening expectations strengthened, with policymakers signalling scope for faster interest-rate increases.
• Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, with unresolved US-Iran tensions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy markets volatile.
• Inflation and rate risks remain in focus, as higher oil prices and elevated bond yields increase uncertainty around the global monetary-policy outlook.

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