Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a positive start, rising 33 points (+0.35%), with the benchmark eyeing a record open after weaker US payroll data pushed bond yields lower and lifted Wall Street.
• S&P 500 ended at a record high, supported by growing expectations that softer labour conditions could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
• US payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, against expectations for an 80,000 increase.
• Gold prices surged, supported by lower bond yields and expectations of easier US monetary policy.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with US and Canadian equities outperforming, while New Zealand and Asian markets remained under pressure. The S&P 500 advanced 0.62% to 7,758, reflecting continued strength in large-cap equities, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.30% to 26,691, leading major benchmarks. The Dow Jones rose 0.28% to 54,037, indicating relatively moderate gains among blue-chip stocks. In Europe, the FTSE 100 increased 0.31% to 10,901, suggesting resilient investor sentiment. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.68% to 36,381, supported by broader risk appetite. The NZX 50 declined 0.96% to 13,824, reflecting weakness in the New Zealand market. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.12% to 65,607, while India’s benchmark declined 0.58% to 78,499, indicating relatively cautious investor sentiment across major Asian equities. Overall, global markets showed mixed trends, with North American equities leading gains while New Zealand and Asian markets remained relatively subdued.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and crypto markets delivered a positive performance, with all listed assets recording gains and precious metals showing notable strength. Gold surged 2.44% to US$4,343.43/oz, supported by lower bond yields and stronger demand for defensive assets. Silver outperformed gold, rising 3.07% to US$63.49/oz, reflecting strength across precious metals. WTI crude gained 1.15% to US$78.18/bbl, indicating firmer sentiment in energy markets. Copper edged 0.20% higher to US$6.58/lb, suggesting relatively stable demand expectations for industrial metals. Uranium recorded the strongest gain, advancing 3.33% to 5,872.84. Meanwhile, Bitcoin increased 0.51% to US$65,221, reflecting modest improvement in crypto-market sentiment. Overall, commodities traded firmly, led by uranium and precious metals, while copper posted a moderate gain. Bitcoin advanced modestly, reflecting positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.Bond Yields

Sovereign bond markets showed modest upward pressure on yields, particularly in Australia and Japan. The Australian 10-year yield stood at 4.985%, while Japan’s 10-year yield reached 2.800%, indicating relatively firmer long-term borrowing costs. In the US, Treasury yields were comparatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4.662% and the 30-year yield marginally lower at 5.210%. The limited movement across US maturities suggests that investors are balancing evolving monetary policy expectations against the broader economic outlook. From an equity-market perspective, persistently elevated bond yields remain an important valuation consideration, particularly for growth and other long-duration equities, as higher discount rates can constrain valuation multiples. Overall, the bond market continues to signal relatively restrictive financial conditions, with movements in sovereign yields likely to remain an important driver of equity-market sentiment and sector rotation.Key Drivers

• US equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a fresh record high.
• US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, versus expectations for an 80,000 increase.
• US unemployment eased to 4.1%, while labour-force participation slipped to 61.4%.
• Nasdaq gained 5.19% for the week, outperforming the S&P 500’s 3.58% rise.
• BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 from 9.4, its highest since 2021, triggering its first formal sell signal in five years and favouring a rotation toward defensive sectors.
• European equities attracted renewed inflows, supported by solid earnings and easing Middle East tensions.
• South Korean market volatility eased as leveraged positions were reduced, although foreign selling continued.
• Atlassian shares surged 35% after Q4 FY26 revenue and earnings exceeded expectations.
• Airbnb rallied 17% after strong Q2 results and an increase in FY26 guidance.
• Iran signalled progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, supporting hopes of geopolitical de-escalation.
• Trump imposed a 15% tariff on polysilicon derivatives, effective 4 December.
• US critical-minerals investment gained momentum, with around US$3 billion of projects announced.
• China’s July trade surplus widened to US$112.5 billion, exceeding expectations of US$107 billion.

ASX Company News

• Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) reported unaudited Q3 FY26 statutory net profit of AU$1.8 billion, up 3% versus the 1H26 quarterly average, while net profit excluding notable items increased 2% to AU$1.8 billion. Revenue rose 1%, lending and deposits each increased 2%, while the CET1 capital ratio stood at 12.1%.
• DroneShield Limited (ASX: DRO) launched RfRecon, its next-generation portable radio-frequency intelligence solution for counter-drone and defence applications. Initial engagement with defence, government and security customers has commenced, with potential orders and revenue contribution expected from 2H 2026.
• CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR) reported FY26 revenue of AU$1.25 billion, up 6%, while reported NPAT increased 14% to AU$314 million. Proforma EBITDA rose 12% in constant currency to AU$700 million. For FY27, the company expects 11%-14% revenue growth and 10%-13% adjusted EBITDA growth in constant currency.
• Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX: SRL) received a conditional commitment of up to US$400 million from the US Office of Strategic Capital under a proposed 25-year debt facility for the Syerston Scandium Project. The company has also commenced preparations for a potential US listing.
• Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE) expects FY26 EBITS before material items of AU$492.3 million, above its previous AU$480 million-AU$490 million guidance. However, TWE expects an additional AU$558.4 million post-tax material charge related to its US operations and reiterated FY27 EBITS guidance of at least equivalent to FY26.
• Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX: TAH) agreed to acquire BetMakers Technology Group for AU$0.24 per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately AU$267 million. Tabcorp targets AU$30 million in annual run-rate cost synergies by the end of Year 2, with the transaction expected to be EPS accretive from Year 2.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• US labour market: Weak July payrolls could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy move.
• Middle East developments: Progress on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains key for oil and risk sentiment.
• Trade policy: New US tariffs on polysilicon could affect solar and clean-energy sectors.
• Bond yields: Treasury yield movements remain important for equity valuations, particularly growth stocks.
• A busy Australian earnings week is in focus, with corporate results and management outlooks likely to drive stock-specific volatility and sector performance.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a positive start, up 33 points (+0.35%) following gains on Wall Street.
• S&P 500 closed at a record high, while the Nasdaq gained 1.30% in the latest session.
• US equities posted their strongest week since April, with the Nasdaq rising 5.19% and S&P 500 gaining 3.58%.
• US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, significantly below expectations for an 80,000 increase.
• US unemployment eased to 4.1%, while labour-force participation declined to 61.4%.
• Silver jumped 3.07%, while WTI crude gained 1.15% to US$78.18/bbl.
• US Treasury yields remained relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4.662%.
• Middle East developments remain in focus, as Iran signalled progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• US trade policy remains a key theme, following a 15% tariff on polysilicon derivatives.
• US critical-minerals investment accelerated, with around US$3 billion of projects announced.

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