Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a stronger open, rising 49 points (+0.55%), after softer-than-expected US inflation data boosted Wall Street and reinforced expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve.
• US market closed higher, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.90%, the S&P 500 rising 0.38%, and the Dow Jones edging 0.02% higher as easing inflation supported technology shares and broader market sentiment.
• Commodity markets strengthened overnight, with WTI crude oil climbing 2.10% to US$79.83/bbl, while gold gained 1.31% to US$4,054.30/oz and copper advanced 1.33% to US$6.32/lb.
• IBM remained in focus after plunging around 25% following weaker-than-expected quarterly guidance, while Goldman Sachs jumped 9% on record quarterly earnings and CrowdStrike rallied 12% as investors rotated into cybersecurity stocks.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly positive performance, supported by strength across US technology stocks and gains in most developed markets. The Nasdaq Composite led the advances, rising 0.90% to 26,107.00, while the S&P 500 gained 0.38% to 7,544.00 and the Dow Jones edged 0.02% higher to 52,508.00. European markets remained firm, with the FTSE 100 advancing 0.30%. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.19%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.74%, while New Zealand's NZX 50 climbed 0.17%, reflecting steady regional sentiment. However, India's benchmark index declined 0.72%, showing selective weakness across Asian markets. Overall, investor sentiment remained positive, supported by optimism surrounding corporate earnings and expectations of a stable interest rate outlook.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a broadly positive performance overnight. Copper gained 1.33% on improved sentiment toward industrial metals, while silver advanced 1.89%, supported by stronger investor demand for precious metals. Gold also strengthened, rising 1.31% as safe-haven buying remained firm. WTI crude oil gained 2.10%, reflecting continued strength across energy markets. Uranium prices also advanced, rising 2.84%, indicating improving sentiment across the nuclear fuel market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged 4.44% as renewed buying interest boosted the cryptocurrency market.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields delivered a mixed performance as investors continued to assess the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Australia's 10-year government bond yield declined 0.018 bps to 4.883%, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield fell 0.012 bps to 2.691%, reflecting easing bond yields despite expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. US Treasury yields were also mixed, with the 10-year yield edging 0.002 bps lower to 4.582%, while the 30-year Treasury yield rose 0.007 bps to 5.101%, indicating that investors continue to expect long-term borrowing costs to remain elevated.Key Drivers

• US equities advanced after softer-than-expected inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater scope to ease policy, with technology and communication services leading sector gains.
• Commodity markets traded broadly higher, with WTI crude oil climbing to US$79.83 per barrel, while gold rose 1.31% to US$4,054.30/oz and copper gained 1.33% to US$6.32/lb as investors balanced geopolitical risks against improving market sentiment.
• Asian markets finished mostly stronger, led by China's Shanghai Composite (+1.36%), Japan's Nikkei 225 (+0.74%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.52%), reflecting renewed confidence following the US inflation report.
• US inflation cooled sharply in June, with headline CPI falling 0.4% month-on-month and annual inflation easing to 3.5%, while core CPI was unchanged, reinforcing expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy path.
• Banking stocks remained in focus after JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, although IBM slumped around 25% following disappointing revenue and earnings guidance.
• CrowdStrike rallied 12% to a record high as stronger demand for cybersecurity solutions offset weakness in IBM, while Goldman Sachs surged 9% after reporting record quarterly earnings.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated despite President Trump withdrawing the proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo toll, as military activity around the key shipping route continued to support elevated energy prices.
• China reported record exports of US$412 billion in June, driven by strong AI hardware demand and front-loaded shipments ahead of expected US tariffs, even as crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade.

ASX Company News

• Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (ASX: VUL): Vulcan Energy received the first strategic equity funding drawdown under its €2.2 billion (approximately AU$3.9 billion) fully funded financing package for the Phase One Lionheart Project, following the achievement of Financial Close in May 2026. The milestone confirms that initial funding conditions have been satisfied and supports the continued execution of Europe's integrated lithium and renewable energy project, which is targeting annual production of 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide monohydrate, sufficient for approximately 500,000 electric vehicle batteries, alongside 275 GWh of renewable electricity and 560 GWh of renewable heat annually over an estimated 30-year mine life. The company stated that future funding drawdowns will occur in line with construction milestones, reinforcing confidence in the project's execution strategy and Europe's critical minerals and energy security objectives.
• Orezone Gold Corporation (ASX: ORE): Orezone reported its first full quarter as a multi-mine gold producer following the acquisition of the Casa Berardi Gold Mine, producing 58,566 ounces of gold during the June 2026 quarter and 97,355 ounces during the first half of 2026, while reaffirming its full-year production guidance. Bomboré continued to outperform mining and processing expectations, with throughput exceeding nameplate capacity and improved access to higher-grade hard rock ore expected to support stronger production in the second half of the year. At Casa Berardi, the company advanced underground development, expanded exploration and processing capacity, while confirming that the temporary suspension caused by a nearby wildfire is not expected to affect its 2026 production guidance, underscoring the resilience of its diversified operating portfolio.
•  Almonty Industries Inc. (ASX: AII): Almonty Industries expanded its long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, extending the contract term from 15 to 21 years while increasing contracted tungsten concentrate volumes by 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units. The amended agreement improves realised pricing by approximately 6.3%, lifting expected annual contracted revenue at current APT prices to approximately US$490 million and adding at least US$30 million in annual revenue. Covering around 90% of Phase I production from the Sangdong Mine in South Korea, the agreement strengthens long-term revenue visibility while supporting the supply of conflict-free tungsten to critical U.S. defence and industrial supply chains as the project progresses toward full commercial production.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

•  NONE

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• China GDP Growth (12:00 pm AEST): Provides the latest reading on the world's second-largest economy and will be closely watched for signs of economic momentum and implications for global commodity demand.
• China Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment (12:00 pm AEST): Offer key insights into manufacturing activity, consumer spending and investment trends, providing an important gauge of China's overall economic health.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) (10:30 pm AEST): Measures wholesale inflation and will be monitored for further confirmation of easing price pressures following the softer-than-expected US CPI report.
• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (11:45 pm AEST): The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, with markets focused on any guidance regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a stronger open after cooler-than-expected US inflation data lifted Wall Street and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less restrictive policy stance.
• US equities advanced on easing inflation and strong corporate earnings, while commodity markets strengthened with gains across gold, copper, uranium, silver and WTI crude oil, reflecting improving investor risk appetite.
• China's record June exports and robust AI hardware demand provided further support for global growth sentiment, although weaker crude oil imports highlighted ongoing softness in domestic demand.
• Banking stocks remained in focus after stronger-than-expected results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, while CrowdStrike surged to a record high as demand for cybersecurity stocks accelerated despite IBM's sharp post-earnings decline.
• Middle East geopolitical tensions remained elevated even after President Trump withdrew the proposed Strait of Hormuz cargo toll, keeping energy markets and global shipping risks firmly in focus.
• Investors will closely monitor China's GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment data, alongside the US Producer Price Index and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, for fresh signals on global economic momentum and monetary policy.

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