Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a softer opening, slipping 15 points (-0.17%) after Wall Street ended lower as weakness in semiconductor stocks outweighed strength in defensive sectors.
• US equity markets closed lower after renewed weakness in semiconductor stocks outweighed strong gains across Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Real Estate sectors.
• TSMC delivered robust quarterly earnings, but concerns over higher capital expenditure and AI investment spending continued to weigh on global semiconductor shares.
• Despite heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including a fifth straight night of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices finished mostly unchanged.
• South Korea imposed a temporary ban on new single-stock leveraged trading products, while declines in gold and copper prices and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dampened overall market sentiment.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets closed mostly lower overnight as weakness in technology and semiconductor stocks weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the sharpest decline among the major US indices, falling 1.47%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.51% and the Dow Jones eased 0.20%. Despite the broader weakness, the UK's FTSE 100 outperformed, rising 0.54% as investors favoured defensive sectors. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite also finished lower, declining 0.21% amid softer commodity sentiment. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.79%, reflecting increased risk aversion and pressure on export-oriented technology stocks. India's benchmark index ended the session unchanged, indicating cautious investor positioning ahead of key global economic developments. New Zealand's NZX 50 edged 0.14% lower. Overall, investor sentiment remained restrained as markets assessed escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent uncertainty surrounding interest rate expectations, and renewed selling across global semiconductor stocks despite strong corporate earnings from major chipmakers.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets traded mostly lower overnight, with weakness evident across precious metals, industrial metals, uranium and digital assets. Gold declined 2.07% to US$3,976.18 per ounce, while silver fell 2.89% to US$55.77 per ounce. Copper slipped 0.92% to US$6.24 per pound, reflecting softer sentiment toward industrial commodities. Uranium recorded the steepest decline, falling 5.01% to 5,191.19. In contrast, WTI crude oil remained relatively stable, easing just 0.03% to US$79.58 per barrel as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to provide price support. Bitcoin also edged lower, declining 1.01% to US$64,165.00, reflecting cautious sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Overall, the commodity complex experienced broad selling pressure, although oil remained comparatively resilient.Bond Yields

Global bond yields remained elevated as investors continued to assess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and geopolitical developments. Australia's 10-year government bond yield edged higher, indicating that domestic fixed-income markets continue to price in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields eased marginally across the 10-year and 30-year maturities, suggesting only a modest reassessment of monetary policy expectations rather than a material shift in market sentiment. In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield remained elevated, underscoring expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual policy normalisation. Overall, fixed-income markets remained focused on incoming economic data, inflation trends and central bank guidance to gauge the future direction of global interest rates.Key Drivers

• US equities closed lower but recovered from intraday lows, with the Nasdaq Composite falling nearly 1.5% as semiconductor weakness offset gains across defensive sectors.
• Semiconductor stocks remained under heavy pressure despite a solid TSMC outlook, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF declining 3.7%.
• TSMC reported a 77% increase in second-quarter net profit and lifted 2026 capital expenditure guidance to US$60–64 billion, yet its US-listed shares still fell about 2%.
• Megacap technology stocks traded unevenly, with Broadcom, Alphabet, SpaceX and Nvidia declining, while Apple and Microsoft recorded modest gains.
• Netflix shares fell around 8% in after-hours trading after quarterly revenue missed expectations slightly and third-quarter guidance disappointed investors.
• Escalating conflict between the US and Iran remained a major market risk, with US strikes continuing for a fifth consecutive night and Iran retaliating against military bases in Gulf countries.
• Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remained elevated, supporting oil and diesel prices, with US diesel futures rising about 20% since the beginning of the previous week.
• Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, with policymakers warning that inflation remains too high and may require a modestly tighter policy setting.
• The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its first increase since January 2023 as domestic inflationary pressures strengthened.
• US retail sales rose 0.2% in June, below expectations, although the GDP-linked control group increased by a stronger 0.5%, suggesting underlying consumption remained resilient.

ASX Company News

• Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI): Alcoa reported quarterly revenue of US$3.97 billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$901 million, while adjusted net income reached US$562 million. Alumina production declined 6% quarter-on-quarter to 2.20 million tonnes following operational disruptions at the Pinjarra refinery and Cyclone Narelle-related gas supply issues. The company subsequently lowered its 2026 alumina production and shipment guidance.
• Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU): Perseus continued to advance its growth pipeline, with the CMA Underground transitioning into production and the Yaouré open pit delivering 24% more contained gold than the reserve model during the six months to March 2026. The company plans to invest US$34 million in approximately 123 kilometres of drilling during FY27 to support resource growth and mine-life extension.
• Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL): Regis provided stronger FY27 guidance, forecasting group gold production of 360,000–400,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AU$2,990–AU$3,390 per ounce. The company also expects growth capital expenditure of AU$250–AU$270 million and exploration spending of AU$80–AU$90 million, supported by higher production from the Duketon operations and continued investment in future growth projects.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today:

• WAM Income Maximiser Limited (ASX: WMX): AU$0.006 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 10:30 pm (AEST): US Housing Permits & Building Starts – Stronger-than-expected housing data could reinforce expectations of resilient economic activity and influence interest rate outlook.
• 12:00 am (AEST): US Consumer Sentiment – The survey will provide fresh insight into consumer confidence, spending trends and inflation expectations.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Investors will assess today's economic releases for clues on the timing and direction of future US monetary policy following recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
• Commodity Markets: Overnight weakness in gold, copper and uranium may weigh on sentiment toward ASX-listed resource and mining stocks.
• Middle East Developments: Ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain a key market risk, with potential implications for global energy prices and broader investor sentiment.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open as technology-led losses on Wall Street dampen investor sentiment.
• Escalating US-Iran tensions continue to support energy prices while increasing geopolitical risks for global markets.
• Weakness in gold, copper and uranium prices may weigh on ASX-listed resource stocks.
• Investors will closely watch US Housing Permits, Building Starts and Consumer Sentiment data for further guidance on economic conditions and interest rate expectations.
• Commodity price movements and corporate earnings will remain key drivers of near-term market performance.
• Overall, markets are expected to remain cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty, central bank policy expectations and volatility in the resources sector.

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