Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a higher open following a mixed Wall Street session, with gains in the Dow Jones and equal-weight S&P 500 offsetting weakness in technology stocks.
• US equities finished mixed, as the Dow Jones and equal-weight S&P 500 advanced, while the Nasdaq extended losses for a third consecutive session amid pressure on technology stocks.
• Commodities weakened sharply, with gold falling 2.6% and copper declining 2.2%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure across industrial and precious metals.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded in a mixed but broadly cautious tone overnight, with performance diverging across regions and indices. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.43% as technology stocks remained under pressure, while the Dow Jones advanced 0.35% supported by strength in industrial and defensive sectors. In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed slightly higher, gaining 0.31%, reflecting relative resilience despite broader global uncertainty. In North America, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite declined 0.55% amid weakness in commodity-linked sectors. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.88% on sustained selling pressure in technology stocks, while India outperformed with a strong 1.04% gain, highlighting continued domestic market resilience. The NZX 50 also finished lower by 0.26%, reflecting subdued risk appetite. Overall, global markets remained sensitive to interest rate expectations, sector rotation away from technology, and ongoing volatility in commodity-linked equities.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded sharply lower overnight as investors reduced exposure to cyclical and precious metals amid growing concerns over global growth and persistent monetary policy tightness. Precious metals came under significant pressure, with gold falling to US$3,999.60 per ounce and silver recording the steepest decline among major commodities. Copper declined 2.68% and uranium eased 2.31%, reflecting softer demand expectations. Energy markets also faced broad selling pressure, as WTI crude dropped 4.65% to US$69.87 per barrel amid improving supply dynamics. In digital assets, Bitcoin fell 2.41%, tracking the broader decline in risk-sensitive assets. Overall, commodity and cryptocurrency markets remained under pressure, driven by a combination of weaker growth expectations, tighter financial conditions, and reduced risk appetite across global markets.Bond Yields

Bond markets showed a slightly softer bias as yields edged lower across major economies, reflecting cautious positioning among investors. In the US, both the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were marginally lower, indicating subdued moves as markets reassessed the interest rate outlook. Australian bond yields also eased modestly ahead of key domestic data releases, while Japan’s 10-year yield remained elevated near multi-year highs amid ongoing policy normalisation expectations. Overall, fixed-income markets remained range-bound, with participants closely tracking inflation signals, central bank commentary, and upcoming macroeconomic indicators for direction.Key Drivers

• US equities closed mixed, with the S&P 500 fading from earlier gains and Nasdaq under pressure, while the Dow Jones remained near record highs.
• Market breadth remained resilient, with the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the cap-weighted index, highlighting rotation beneath mega-cap tech weakness.
• Another rough session for commodities as a stronger US dollar weighed on aluminium, gold, copper, and other major commodities, with broad-based weakness seen across the complex.
• Brent crude fell 4.7% to US$73.37/bbl, fully reversing geopolitical risk premium and returning to pre-conflict levels.
• SK Hynix announced a major US listing plan, reinforcing global semiconductor capital market activity.
• Qualcomm expanded its AI/data-centre strategy through acquisition and partnerships, signalling deeper competition in AI infrastructure.
• Central bank commentary remained mixed, with BOJ signalling potential hikes, while PBoC hinted at targeted easing support.
• US new home sales rose to 580,000 in May, coming in below estimates of 640,000, marking the weakest monthly gain since January amid affordability pressures and higher mortgage rates.
• Japan’s services Producer Price Index increased 3.3% year-on-year, signalling continued and broadening inflationary pressure in the services sector.
• Australian underlying inflation strengthened, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may deliver one additional interest rate hike.

ASX Company News

• The a2 Milk Company Limited (ASX: A2M) declared a NZ$300 million fully franked special dividend, equivalent to 41.36 cents per share, with an ex-dividend date of 8 July 2026 and payment scheduled for 24 July 2026, following regulatory approvals in China.
• Judo Capital Holdings Limited (ASX: JDO) reported its FY26 update, with cost of risk expected to increase to AU$116 million–AU$122 million due to specific provisions arising from three customer exposures linked to borrower-specific developments across different sectors. As a result, impaired and 90-days-past-due loans are expected to rise to around 3% of gross loans and advances, while collective provision coverage remains broadly stable at 94 basis points. Despite this, lending momentum remains strong, with gross loans and advances forecast at AU$14.6 billion–AU$14.7 billion and net interest margin improving above 3.2%. FY26 profit before tax is expected at AU$163 million–AU$169 million, reflecting solid growth, with FY27 PBT guidance of AU$210 million–AU$220 million supported by continued operating leverage and capital strength.
• Ventia Services Group Limited (ASX: VNT) appointed Mark Ralston as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer effective 1 September 2026, following a structured succession process aimed at ensuring leadership continuity.
• Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) has updated its FY26 outlook, estimating that the ongoing Middle East conflict will now impact underlying EBITA by up to AU$60 million, higher than the previous estimate of AU$30 million–AU$40 million. The extended conflict continues to disrupt project execution, with delays in new project awards and commencements, although no cancellations have been reported.
• Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME) has signed a binding Heads of Agreement with Echo IQ for a strategic partnership and investment in AI-based cardiac diagnostics. PME will invest AU$10 million initially, with an option for an additional AU$10 million subject to FDA clearance of Echo IQ’s technology. The deal also includes a reseller arrangement for Echo IQ’s products through Pro Medicus’ healthcare network.
• Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) confirmed full repayment of its Ravenswood Vendor Financing Promissory Note, receiving AU$77 million including principal and interest, strengthening its balance sheet.
• Tasmea Limited (ASX: TEA) issued FY27 guidance, targeting Underlying EBITA of AU$202 million–AU$208 million and NPATA of AU$128 million–AU$132 million, implying more than 70% earnings growth, supported by acquisitions and a strong order book.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am (AEST): Australia Unemployment Rate – Market expects 4.4% vs prior 4.5%, with labour market strength closely watched for implications on Reserve Bank of Australia policy.
• 10:30 pm (AEST): US Core PCE Price Index – Key US inflation gauge, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for signals on future interest rate decisions.
• 10:30 pm (AEST): US Durable Goods Orders – Important indicator of US manufacturing and industrial demand momentum, providing insight into broader economic activity.
• The materials sector may see weakness, as continued declines in key commodities such as copper, gold, and silver signal softer pricing power and weaker global demand sentiment, particularly across industrial metals and mining-linked equities.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a higher open despite mixed Wall Street session.
• US equities closed mixed, with the Dow Jones gaining while the Nasdaq extended its losing streak for a third straight session.
• Commodities fell sharply across the board, with weakness led by precious and industrial metals amid stronger US dollar sentiment.
• Silver was the worst-performing commodity, plunging 7.12%, marking significant pressure across the precious metals complex.
• WTI crude oil dropped 4.65% to US$69.87/bbl, fully reversing recent geopolitical risk premium.
• Japan’s services inflation rose 3.3% year-on-year, signalling persistent cost pressures in the economy.
• Australian inflation data and US core PCE inflation remain key near-term catalysts for interest rate expectations and market direction.
• ASX materials sector may see weakness, as broad declines in metals signal softer pricing power and earnings pressure for miners.

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