Markets Today (30 October 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. ASX Outlook-

The ASX 200 (XJO) is currently sitting around 8,891, down 34 points or 0.39%. So, the market has opened softer this morning, following a somewhat mixed lead from Wall Street overnight.

The sentiment across Australia and New Zealand is cautious — early trades suggest investors are digesting inflation news and waiting for clearer signals on rate cuts.

2. Overnight US Markets:

Overnight, the U.S. markets didn’t move much overall, but there were pockets of strength and weakness:

Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected, Powell flagged “another rate cut in December not a foregone conclusion. Major US benchmarks mostly lower and dipped on Powell’s hawkish comments at the post-FOMC press conference.

1. S&P 500 stayed flat (0.00%).
2. Dow Jones slipped 0.16%.
3. NASDAQ gained 0.55%, boosted by big tech stocks.
4. Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, fell 0.87%, showing weakness among small caps.

So, tech continues to lead, but the broader market was mixed, especially after fresh inflation data rattled rate cut expectations

3. US Sector Performance

Winners: Tech and Communication Services both rose +1.05% — that’s where the strength was.

Losers: Real Estate (-2.66%) /Consumer Staples (-2.00%)

This shows investors are rotating back into growth and tech, while defensives and interest-rate-sensitive sectors took a hit.

4. Commodities

 Now looking at commodities, it’s a bit of a mixed bag:

1. Gold fell 0.58% to $3,929 USD, suggesting investors are slightly less defensive today.
2. Copper gained 0.58% to $5.17 USD, which is a good sign for industrial and mining sectors.
3. WTI Oil rose 0.34% to $60.36 USD, showing some stability after recent volatility

So, while gold softened, base metals and oil showed modest strength, which could lend some support to local miners and energy names.

5. What to Watch Today (ASX Focus)

Two big themes to keep an eye on today:

Uranium

• The Uranium ETF (URA) was up 2.6% overnight, after an 8.3% jump the day before, following the U.S. government’s $80 billion nuclear power deal to build more plants.
• Investors are also speculating about a U.S. uranium stockpile, which has lifted sentiment in uranium miners — though the ETF did pull back from intraday highs.
• Expect uranium names like Paladin, Deep Yellow, and Boss Energy to stay active today.

Inflation Shock

• The latest CPI data in the U.S. came in hotter than expected, disappointing markets.
• As a result, November rate cut expectations have faded, with some analysts now expecting no rate cuts for the foreseeable future.
• Combined with volatile earnings reactions from the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, this could add some downward pressure in the short term.

In consclusion, inflation and rate outlook are the key themes driving market caution today.

6. Broker Move:

Plenty of broker activity this morning — mostly upgrades from Macquarie (MQG) and JPMorgan (JPM)

• Austal (ASB) upgraded to Outperform (from Neutral); target $8.10 → up from $7.95.
• Capricorn Metals (CMM) upgraded to Neutral (from Underperform); target $13.00.
• Data#3 (DTL) downgraded to Neutral (from Outperform); target $9.85 → up from $9.15.
• IGO (IGO) upgraded to Neutral (from Underweight); target $5.40, up from $4.00.
• Life360 (360) initiated with Overweight and a $58 target.
• Liontown Resources (LTR) upgraded to Neutral (from Underweight); target $1.10 from $0.45.
• Mineral Resources (MIN) upgraded to Neutral (from Underweight); target $45, up from $31.
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS) upgraded to Overweight; target $3.60, up from $1.20.
• Woolworths (WOW) upgraded to Buy (from Hold); target $30.70, up from $29.80.

A lot of optimism in the lithium and mining space here, suggesting brokers see value returning to these names.

7. Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

A couple of companies are trading ex-dividend today:

• Acrow (ACF) – $0.03 per share
• Autosports (ASG) – $0.045 per share

That means their share prices might dip slightly to reflect the payout.

Our take at Kapitales Research:

• The ASX 200 is weaker this morning, tracking U.S. caution after hot inflation data.
• Tech remains the global bright spot, while financials and real estate are under pressure.
• On the local side, watch uranium, lithium, and retail — these could be where the action is today.
• Broker upgrades across mining and materials hint at a more positive medium-term outlook despite today’s softness.

We’ve got a soft open, inflation jitters, but still pockets of strength — especially in tech, uranium, and lithium.
It’s a day to stay selective, focus on quality names, and keep an eye on the rate outlook.

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