Oil Prices Dip on Rising US Stockpiles and IEA Surplus Warning

Highlights:

• Price Drop: Brent crude fell 0.7% to $US65.67 per barrel at the time of writing after a surprise rise in US stockpiles.
• Surplus Warning: The IEA forecasts a record oil surplus in 2026, with inventories projected to grow at 2.96 million barrels per day.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Risks persist from Russian export sanctions and US warnings of “very severe consequences” over ceasefire disputes.

Crude oil prices slid after a surprise build-up in US inventories and a bearish market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to ANZ. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 0.7% lower at $US65.67 per barrel.

US Inventories Hit Two-Month High

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed commercial crude oil stockpiles rose by 3 million barrels last week, reaching their highest level in two months. The unexpected jump in inventories added pressure to global prices, reflecting weaker demand signals in the near term.

IEA Flags Record Surplus Risk in 2026

In its latest monthly report, the IEA warned the oil market could face a record surplus in 2026, with global inventories projected to grow at 2.96 million barrels per day. This pace would exceed the average stock build seen in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The agency attributed the potential glut to slowing demand growth — forecast at less than half the rate recorded in 2023 — combined with rising non-OPEC production and the return of OPEC+ supply to the market.

Geopolitical Risks Remain

Despite the bearish fundamentals, the IEA cautioned that supply-side risks persist. Sanctions on Russian oil exports remain a concern, while geopolitical tensions could trigger market volatility. ANZ noted that risks intensified after US President Donald Trump issued a warning of “very severe consequences” should Russia refuse a ceasefire in ongoing conflicts, adding uncertainty to the global supply outlook.

Disclaimer for Kapitales Research

The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com