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Why Has the Australian Dollar Surged to a Record High Against the Yen?

Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

  • Aussie dollar hits record: The Australian dollar surged to a fresh high of 110.11 yen, supported by strong demand and expectations around Japan’s upcoming elections at the time of writing.
  • Yen continues to weaken: Japan’s currency has fallen more than 5% against the Aussie this year, pressured by concerns over government debt exceeding twice the size of the economy.
  • Political signals drive moves: Comments from Japan’s prime minister backing the benefits of a weaker yen added to selling pressure, while the Australian dollar benefited from higher yields and stronger risk sentiment.

Aussie Dollar Hits New Milestone

The Australian dollar climbed to a record high of 110.11 yen, underscoring the widening gap between the two currencies as political and fiscal expectations reshape market sentiment. The AUD/JPY exchange rate pushed higher ahead of Japan’s upcoming elections, which investors believe could strengthen Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push for increased fiscal stimulus and defence spending. At the time of writing, the Australian dollar was holding close to these historic levels, reflecting sustained demand for the higher-yielding currency.

Yen Under Pressure in 2024

The Japanese yen has struggled throughout the year, falling more than 5% against the Australian dollar so far. Much of the weakness stems from growing unease around Japan’s public finances, with government debt now valued at more than twice the size of the country’s economic output. These concerns have weighed heavily on the yen, particularly as other global economies maintain comparatively tighter monetary settings.

Political Signals Add to Volatility

The yen faced renewed selling pressure this week after Japan’s prime minister publicly highlighted the perceived benefits of a weaker currency, including improved export competitiveness. Those comments reinforced market expectations that policymakers may tolerate further depreciation, adding to downward momentum in the yen. In contrast, the Australian dollar has benefited from relatively higher interest rates and stronger risk appetite among global investors.

What the Currency Move Means for Markets

A stronger Australian dollar can lower import costs and help ease inflationary pressures at home, but it may also weigh on exporters. For Japan, a softer yen can support exports, yet it raises the cost of imports and intensifies concerns around inflation and debt sustainability. With elections looming and fiscal policy firmly in focus, currency markets are likely to remain volatile. Investors will continue watching political developments in Japan and global risk sentiment to gauge whether the Australian dollar can sustain its record-breaking run against the yen.

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