ASX 200 Preview: Market Extends Gains as Wall Street Rallies and Gold Surges

1. ASX 200 Opens Higher:

The ASX 200 is trading up 0.16% at 8,850.10 (10:46 am AEDT), following a strong lead from Wall Street overnight. The index has now gained 0.41% over the past five sessions and sits 2.9% below its 52-week high.

Gains are being led by strength in Materials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary, while Financials are providing a modest drag. Light & Wonder Inc. and Monadelphous Group Limited are among the session’s top performers, up 10.07% and 6.62% respectively, after upbeat earnings momentum and improved sector sentiment.

2. Wall Street Surges as Shutdown Hopes Lift Risk Sentiment

US equities rallied strongly overnight as optimism grew that a deal in the US Senate could avert a federal government shutdown.

Dow Jones: +0.81%

S&P 500: +1.54%

Nasdaq: +2.27%

The Nasdaq recorded its best session since May, driven by a rebound in large-cap tech and communication names. Progress in Washington boosted investor sentiment, with risk appetite returning across equities and commodities.

Big Tech outperformed: Nvidia (+6.1%), Alphabet (+4.0%), and Tesla (+3.7%) led gains, while the broader Information Technology (+2.68%), Communication Services (+2.53%), and Consumer Discretionary (+1.49%) sectors outperformed. Defensives such as Consumer Staples (–0.34%), Utilities (–0.12%), and Real Estate (–0.14%) underperformed as investors rotated back into growth...

3. Sector Performance — ASX

Nine of eleven ASX sectors are trading higher in early trade.

Leaders: Materials (+1.25%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.72%), Energy (+0.65%), Telecom Services (+0.73%)

Laggards: Financials (–1.12%), Information Technology (–0.22%)

Materials are driving the gains as gold prices surged overnight. Utilities and Healthcare are also firmer, while Financials are seeing light profit-taking after recent strength.

4. Commodity Watch

Gold rose 2.7% to US$4,108/oz — its strongest level in several weeks — after JPMorgan Private Bank projected prices could climb above US$5,000/oz in 2026. The rally in precious metals lifted related equities, with Northern Star up 3.3%.

Silver advanced 4.6%, while Copper and Oil both firmed modestly.

The rebound in gold and base metals is helping to lift Materials and Energy sectors, which are expected to remain firm throughout the session.

5. ASX Corporate Highlights

Broker Moves:

• Aeris Resources (AIS): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter; target raised to $0.65 (from $0.52).
• Monadelphous Group (MND): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by Macquarie; target lifted to $26.75 (from $20.75).

Dividends Paid: Gowing Bros (GOW), Tasmea (TEA)

Ex-Dividend:

• Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.109
• National Australia Bank (NAB) – $0.85
• Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

6. What to Watch Today

Resources: Gold and rare earth miners are expected to lead after overnight strength in metals. The Gold Miners ETF rose 4.7%, while Rare Earth ETFs jumped over 6%. Pilbara Minerals (PLS) and Lynas (LYC) are likely to remain in focus.

Market Sentiment: The rebound in US equities may mark the end of last week’s shallow pullback, with analysts turning optimistic on Q3 earnings and stronger corporate profit guidance.

Banks: CBA and Bendigo results could influence the broader financial sector as margins remain in focus.

7. Kapitales Research Take

The ASX 200 is trading higher for a second straight session, supported by strong overnight gains in Wall Street and firmer commodity prices. Materials are leading the local market, driven by gold’s rally and improving sentiment toward metals.

While Financials are weaker on profit-taking, the broader tone is constructive, suggesting the recent correction may be short-lived. We expect the ASX to hold gains around 8,840–8,870 through the session, with upside potential if US futures remain firm into the afternoon.

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