Market Snapshot

The S&P/ASX 200 Index traded near AU$8,744.4 during the week and remained above its long-term 200-weeks EMA, indicating that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite ongoing short-term market consolidation. Investor sentiment stayed cautious as market participants assessed the impact of the RBA’s recent interest rate increase alongside mixed inflation and labour market data, which continued to influence expectations surrounding economic growth and borrowing conditions.

Externally, geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine continued to elevate global uncertainty and contributed to volatility across commodity and energy markets. OPEC-related developments and fluctuations in crude oil prices also influenced investor positioning within the Energy sector. 

Meanwhile, US equity markets moved higher following strong earnings from major technology companies, supporting sentiment toward growth-oriented sectors globally. On the ASX, Materials and Information Technology outperformed amid stronger commodity prices and improved technology sentiment. Among individual stocks, Unico Silver Limited emerged as a notable gainer, while Tabcorp Holdings Limited remained the weakest performer during the week. 

Overall, the market continued to reflect a cautious yet resilient tone amid evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

ASX 200 Technical View

Source: Trading View, Analysis by Kapitales Research

The S&P/ASX 200 Index is trading near AU$8,744.4 on the weekly chart and remains above the key long-term 200-weeks EMA, indicating that the broader uptrend is still intact. The index is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern after witnessing profit booking from the recent high near AU$9,020. At present, the index is trading below the 20-weeks EMA but remains above the 50-weeks EMA, reflecting short-term weakness while maintaining a moderately positive intermediate trend. RSI is hovering around 50, suggesting neutral momentum with no oversold conditions. Immediate support is placed near the central pivot zone of AU$8,332.9, followed by stronger support at pivot support S1 AU$7,550.6. On the upside, a breakout of that triangle pattern could push the index towards pivot resistance R1 near AU$9,496.6 over the medium term.

Sector Trends

Source: Trading View, Analysis by Kapitales Research

Out of 11 sectors, 4 closed higher during the week, reflecting selective investor participation amid uncertain global market conditions. Materials emerged as the strongest performer with a gain of 4.26%, supported by stronger commodity prices and improved sentiment toward mining and resource-related stocks. Industrials also recorded gains, indicating resilience in infrastructure-linked businesses. Information Technology moved higher following strong quarterly results from major global technology companies, which boosted investor confidence in growth-oriented stocks. Communication Services ended marginally higher, reflecting stable sector sentiment. On the other hand, Energy was the weakest-performing sector, declining 7.62% as crude oil prices fell more than 7% over the past week amid easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions. Financials closed slightly lower as investors reacted cautiously to expectations of further RBA rate hikes, which may increase borrowing costs and pressure economic activity. Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care also witnessed selling pressure during the week.

Top Stock Movers

Source: Trading View, Analysis by Kapitales Research

Global Market Pulse

Global Index	Level	Weekly Movement
S&P 500	7,398	▲2.33%
Nasdaq	29,226	▲5.39%
Dow Jones	49,613	▲0.23%
NZX 50	13,175	▲1.04%
FTSE 100	10,254	▼1.02%
S&P/TSX Composite	34,077	▲0.55%
Hang Seng	26,393	▲2.39%
Nifty 50	24,176	▲0.74%
Straits Times	4,921	▼0.19%
SSE Composite	4,179	▲1.65%
Nikkei 225	63,770	▲7.03%

Source: Trading View, Analysis by Kapitales Research

Global equity markets witnessed mixed but largely positive momentum during the week as investors reacted to geopolitical developments, central bank policy decisions, and major corporate earnings announcements. US indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, advanced strongly following robust quarterly results from leading technology companies and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence-driven growth. 

However, market volatility remained elevated due to renewed tensions between the US and Iran after temporary hopes of a diplomatic easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 7.03%, supported by strong exporter sentiment and technology sector gains. Chinese indices, including the Hang Seng and SSE Composite, moved higher on expectations of further economic stimulus and supportive policy measures. India’s Nifty 50 and New Zealand’s NZX 50 also ended higher amid stable domestic economic conditions and resilient investor confidence. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 remained under pressure as central banks across major economies maintained cautious commentary, with some countries announcing rate hikes while others kept interest rates unchanged to manage inflation and growth concerns.

Commodities & Crypto Watch

Source: Trading Economics & Trading View; Analysis by Kapitales Research

Commodity markets witnessed mixed trends during the week, driven by geopolitical developments, demand expectations, and global macroeconomic sentiment. Gold advanced 2.14% as investors increased exposure to safe-haven assets amid rising tensions between the US and Iran and uncertainty surrounding global economic growth. Silver and copper also moved higher due to improving industrial demand expectations and optimism linked to China’s infrastructure and manufacturing activity. Copper gained 5.47%, reflecting expectations of tighter supply conditions and stronger clean-energy demand. 

In contrast, WTI and Brent crude oil declined sharply by 7.63% and 8.21%, respectively, as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on energy markets. The decline was driven by optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran talks and reports of a potential peace agreement that could ease supply disruption concerns and support the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although caution persisted after reports indicated that fresh strikes have been initiated in the region. Palladium also ended lower on weak industrial sentiment. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin gained 2.84% on institutional buying interest, while Ethereum slipped amid broader volatility in digital assets.

Major Corporate Developments & Global Triggers Over the Week

Key Corporate Updates

• Woodside Energy faces growing uncertainty over its US$17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project amid difficulties securing long-term buyers and concerns over project economics.(Read more)
• ASX technology stocks rallied strongly, led by gains in Xero, Life360, SiteMinder, and TechnologyOne, as investor sentiment improved across the sector.(Read more)
• ASX materials stocks advanced as mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto, alongside gold miners, gained on stronger commodity sentiment.(Read more)
• Duratec Limited (ASX: DUR) secured an AU$68 million subcontract for the Darwin Ship Lift Facility, strengthening its infrastructure pipeline and expanding its presence in defence and marine projects in northern Australia.(Read more)
• Atlantic Lithium’s proposed US$210 million acquisition by Huayou Cobalt significantly de-risks the Ewoyaa Lithium Project, providing stronger funding support and validating the strategic long-term value of its Ghanaian lithium assets amid volatile market conditions.(Read more)

Global & Geopolitical Trends

• Global markets are being reshaped in 2026 as AI, energy demand, and cloud infrastructure competition drive major shifts across industries and economies.(Read more)
• The RBA’s 4.35% cash rate and persistent Middle East-driven inflation pressures are weighing on Australia’s slowing economic growth outlook.(Read more)
• Speculation around a potential UAE exit from OPEC has highlighted how energy supply dynamics are increasingly tied to AI and data infrastructure expansion.(Read more)
• The Australian dollar climbed to a four-year high as easing US-Iran tensions boosted investor confidence and global market sentiment.(Read more)
• Increasing overseas equity investments suggest more Australian capital is flowing offshore as global diversification trends accelerate.(Read more)

Earnings Highlights

• National Australia Bank reported strong revenue growth, though investors remained focused on margin pressure, rising costs, and softer profit expectations.(Read more)
• Westpac delivered stable earnings and balance sheet growth amid ongoing concerns around margin compression and economic uncertainty.(Read more)
• Medibank reaffirmed its FY26 outlook as customers increasingly shifted toward more affordable and value-focused health insurance plans.(Read more)
• REA Group posted a strong Q3 update supported by higher listings, revenue growth, and resilient digital property demand.(Read more)
• Macquarie Group reported a 30% increase in profit, although market volatility and future earnings concerns remained in focus.(Read more)

Dividend Watch in Coming Weeks

Source: Market Index

Economic Indicators

Source: Trading Economics

Source: Trading Economics

Kaps View

Market sentiment remained cautiously constructive during the week, supported by gains in global equities, stronger technology-led momentum, and improved appetite for resource-linked sectors. The ASX showed selective participation, with Materials outperforming on stronger gold, copper, and iron ore prices, while Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care faced selling pressure. Global markets were broadly positive, led by the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Hang Seng, and Nikkei, as robust technology earnings and AI-led growth optimism offset geopolitical uncertainty.

Domestically, investors remained cautious amid expectations of a restrictive RBA policy backdrop, persistent inflation concerns, and mixed corporate updates. Company-specific developments drove sharp stock-level moves, with Infratil, gold names, and selected technology stocks attracting buying interest, while energy majors and regulatory-sensitive names such as Tabcorp remained under pressure. Commodity trends reinforced sector divergence, as precious and industrial metals gained, while crude oil declined sharply amid shifting expectations around US-Iran tensions and potential supply disruption risks.

Looking ahead, market direction is likely to depend on central bank commentary, inflation signals, commodity price stability, institutional flows, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Opportunities may remain concentrated in quality technology, infrastructure, and materials names, while risks persist for rate-sensitive, energy, and defensive sectors if inflation, bond yields, or geopolitical volatility intensify.

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