ASX 200 Preview: Set to Rebound as Wall Street Rallies; Commodities Stay Firm

1. ASX Futures Signal Stronger Open

The ASX 200 looks set to bounce this morning after Friday’s decline of 51.7 points (-0.57%) to 8,967.40. SPI futures are up ~84 points to 9,011, pointing to a positive start, tracking a strong overnight rebound in U.S. equities.

2. Wall Street Surges Ahead of Powell’s Speech

All three major U.S. indices ended sharply higher on Friday as investors positioned ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address:

Dow Jones +1.89% to 45,631

S&P 500 +1.52% to 6,467

Nasdaq Composite +1.88% to 21,497

Tech and consumer discretionary led the gains, with sentiment boosted by optimism that Powell may strike a balanced tone acknowledging both softer job data and moderating inflation.

3. Jackson Hole Takes Centre Stage

Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole symposium will dominate global attention. Markets remain split on a September rate cut, with probabilities easing back toward 70–75% after recent Fed minutes. His tone could set direction for risk assets into September.

4. Commodity Watch

Uranium (Sprott Junior Uranium Miners Index): surged +6.98% to 1,440, breaking above key moving averages and testing resistance near 1,450. The breakout strengthens the bullish trend in uranium equities.

Silver: advanced nearly +2% to US$38.9/oz, holding well above support at US$37.1 with resistance at US$41.5. Technicals remain constructive.

Gold: firm at US$3,371/oz, consolidating in a triangular range between US$3,266 support and US$3,437 resistance. Any breakout here could drive the next leg higher.

Brent crude oil: steady around US$67–68/bbl, bouncing off US$65 support with resistance near US$70.

5. Corporate Earnings in Focus

Key FY25 results due today include:

• Santos (ASX: STO) – EPS est. 22c, Revenue A$3.87b
• Reece (ASX: REH) – EPS est. 22c, Revenue A$4.47b
• Endeavour Group (ASX: EDV) – EPS est. 7c, Revenue A$5.5b
• Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN) – EPS est. 41c, Revenue A$962m
• Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) – EPS est. -1c, Revenue A$348m
• Ansell (ASX: ANN) – EPS est. A$1.00, Revenue A$1.58b
• NIB Holdings (ASX: NHF) – EPS est. 21c, Revenue A$1.76b
• Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR) – EPS est. 11c, Revenue A$349m

These earnings will be pivotal for energy, banking, lithium, and gold sectors today.

6. Economic Calendar

Locally, the RBA will release its August meeting minutes today. Traders will parse the text for signals on the central bank’s stance on inflation, wage growth, and the timing of any policy adjustments. The minutes could influence the AUD and rate-sensitive sectors like financials and real estate.

Kapitales Research Take

The ASX 200 is set for a rebound, supported by Wall Street’s rally and resilient commodity markets. The RBA minutes will be the key local macro driver, while Powell’s Jackson Hole address dominates global attention. With uranium equities breaking out, silver and gold holding firm, and a heavy domestic earnings slate, markets face a results-driven but policy-sensitive session.

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