Is Oil Entering a New Rally as Trumps Iran Warning Shakes Markets?
Source: Kapitales Research
Highlights:
Oil price surge: Brent crude jumped to around US$71.75 a barrel, at the time of writing, its highest level since September.
Geopolitical trigger: Markets reacted to Donald Trump’s warning to Iran, which raised fears of military conflict and potential supply disruptions.
OPEC+ in focus: Eight OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are set to review supply policy for March, at the time of writing.
Brent Crude Jumps to Fresh 2026 High
Oil prices surged on global markets after geopolitical tensions flared between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures climbed to around US$71.75 per barrel, marking their highest level since September, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to about US$66.27 per barrel.
The rise in oil prices came after US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran over its nuclear programme, heightening fears of instability in an important global energy market.
Global Tensions Drive Oil Price Premium
In an online post, Trump stated that US military assets in the region were on standby to respond swiftly if the situation escalated. The statements pushed oil prices higher as markets began to account for potential disruptions to supply. Analysts noted that concerns over Iran could add between US$3 to US$4 per barrel to crude prices, at the time of writing, as markets seek protection against renewed instability in the Middle East.
Supply Fears Override Oversupply Expectations
Earlier in the year, many investors expected oil prices to weaken due to forecasts of excess supply. Rather than weakening, crude has strengthened throughout 2026, supported by geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela and supply constraints in Kazakhstan. A possible US military action could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East, which produces close to one-third of the world’s crude.
OPEC+ Meeting in Focus
At the time of writing, eight members of OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are scheduled to meet online to review supply policy for March. This is the final month of the current production freeze, and most delegates expect the group to maintain existing output levels.
However, analysts say a major geopolitical shock could force the alliance to reconsider its strategy.
What’s Next for Oil?
With bullish option activity rising and traders seeking protection against further escalation, sentiment remains firmly positive. At the time of writing, oil markets appear increasingly driven by politics rather than fundamentals, suggesting prices could remain elevated as long as tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to simmer.
Disclaimer for Kapitales Research
The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Customer Notice:
Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.
Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au
x
Daily Dose of Buy, Sell & Hold recommendations before the market opens.
Start Your 7 Days Free Trial Now!
We use cookies to help us improve, promote, and protect our services.
By continuing to use this site, we assume you consent to this.
Read our
Privacy Policy
and
Terms & Conditions
Is Oil Entering a New Rally as Trumps Iran Warning Shakes Markets?
Highlights:
Brent Crude Jumps to Fresh 2026 High
Oil prices surged on global markets after geopolitical tensions flared between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures climbed to around US$71.75 per barrel, marking their highest level since September, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to about US$66.27 per barrel.
The rise in oil prices came after US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran over its nuclear programme, heightening fears of instability in an important global energy market.
Global Tensions Drive Oil Price Premium
In an online post, Trump stated that US military assets in the region were on standby to respond swiftly if the situation escalated. The statements pushed oil prices higher as markets began to account for potential disruptions to supply. Analysts noted that concerns over Iran could add between US$3 to US$4 per barrel to crude prices, at the time of writing, as markets seek protection against renewed instability in the Middle East.
Supply Fears Override Oversupply Expectations
Earlier in the year, many investors expected oil prices to weaken due to forecasts of excess supply. Rather than weakening, crude has strengthened throughout 2026, supported by geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela and supply constraints in Kazakhstan. A possible US military action could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East, which produces close to one-third of the world’s crude.
OPEC+ Meeting in Focus
At the time of writing, eight members of OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are scheduled to meet online to review supply policy for March. This is the final month of the current production freeze, and most delegates expect the group to maintain existing output levels.
However, analysts say a major geopolitical shock could force the alliance to reconsider its strategy.
What’s Next for Oil?
With bullish option activity rising and traders seeking protection against further escalation, sentiment remains firmly positive. At the time of writing, oil markets appear increasingly driven by politics rather than fundamentals, suggesting prices could remain elevated as long as tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to simmer.
Disclaimer for Kapitales Research
The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Customer Notice:
Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.
Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au