Is Origin Energys LNG Business the Key to Its Next Growth Phase?

Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

• Steady share move: Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG) rose about 0.5% to $11.84, at the time of writing, after releasing its latest update.
• Flat revenue: The company reported revenue of $2.1 billion, at the time of writing, with stronger LNG earnings offsetting weaker domestic sales.
• Guidance tightened: Full-year LNG production guidance was narrowed to 645–680 petajoules, at the time of writing.

Origin Holds Steady Despite Domestic Weakness

Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG) posted a modest gain on the ASX after releasing its latest trading update, as stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) revenue helped offset softer performance in its domestic energy business. At the time of writing, Origin’s share price was up around 0.5% to $11.84, reflecting cautious optimism among investors. The energy giant reported flat revenue of $2.1 billion, at the time of writing, indicating that growth in export-related operations was enough to counter pressure in local electricity and gas sales.

LNG Segment Lifts Overall Performance

Origin said its LNG division delivered improved revenue, supported by stable production levels and solid global demand. This performance helped balance out weaker conditions in the domestic market, where higher competition and customer switching continued to weigh on volumes. As part of the update, Origin also narrowed its full-year LNG production guidance to between 645 and 680 petajoules, at the time of writing. This compares with its earlier forecast range of 635 to 680 petajoules, suggesting increased confidence in output consistency for the remainder of the financial year.

Why Investors Are Watching Closely

The narrowing of guidance is being viewed positively by the market, as it reduces uncertainty around production targets. Analysts say LNG remains one of Origin’s most valuable assets, particularly as global energy markets continue to seek reliable supply sources. At the same time, domestic energy sales remain under pressure, driven by pricing competition, regulatory challenges, and changing consumer behaviour.

What Does This Mean for the Stock?

Despite flat revenue, the market reaction suggests investors are focusing more on the quality of earnings rather than headline growth. The improved contribution from LNG highlights Origin’s exposure to international markets, which could become a more significant driver of future performance.

At the time of writing, Origin Energy’s steady share price movement reflects a business in

transition—balancing near-term domestic challenges with longer-term opportunities in the global LNG market. If export revenues continue to strengthen, analysts believe the company could be well positioned for more stable earnings growth ahead.

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