Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, falling 28 points (-0.33%), after another soft session on Wall Street led by heavy selling across technology and semiconductor stocks.
• US markets closed lower, with the S&P 500 declining 0.22%, the Nasdaq falling 0.66%, and the Dow Jones easing 0.03% as the AI-driven technology rally continued to unwind.
• Commodity markets weakened sharply, with copper dropping 1.5%, Silver declining 0.54%, and WTI crude oil falling 2.12% as investors reduced exposure to cyclical assets.
• Micron Technology remained the key focus overnight after tumbling 13% ahead of its earnings result, dragging memory-chip stocks lower and weighing on broader AI and semiconductor sentiment.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance as investors remained cautious amid weakness in major US technology stocks. The Nasdaq led the decline, falling 0.66% to 26,040.00, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.22% to 7,483.00 and the Dow Jones eased 0.03% to 52,305.00. European markets also traded lower, with the FTSE 100 declining 0.18%. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite outperformed its developed market peers, rising 0.10%. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.59%, supported by continued investor optimism, while India’s benchmark index advanced 0.58%, reflecting resilient domestic market sentiment. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s NZX 50 fell 0.35%, underperforming regional peers amid softer market conditions.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets mostly traded lower overnight, reflecting a cautious risk environment. Gold was the standout performer, gaining 0.75% to US$4,037.7/oz as investors sought safe-haven assets. WTI crude oil fell 2.12% to US$69.09/bbl amid concerns over weaker global demand and sufficient supply. Copper declined 1.43% to US$6.10/lb on softer industrial demand expectations, while silver eased 0.54% to US$59.60/oz. Uranium also retreated 1.99% to US$5,674.45. Separately, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin advanced 3.82% to US$60,747.00, supported by renewed investor buying interest.Bond Yields

Global government bond yields edged higher as investors continued to assess the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Australia's 10-year government bond yield recorded the largest increase, rising 0.024 bps to 4.809%, reflecting expectations that interest rates could remain elevated. Japan's 10-year government bond yield increased 0.014 bps to 2.719%, supported by ongoing expectations of further policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.007 bps to 4.482%, while the US 30-year Treasury yield gained 0.009 bps to 4.975%, indicating that investors continue to price in higher long-term borrowing costs amid persistent economic resilience.Key Drivers

• Micron Technology plunged around 10%, dragging semiconductor stocks lower and weighing on the Nasdaq as investors reassessed AI-related valuations.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, while signalling a potential rate hike by the end of 2026, reinforcing a hawkish policy outlook.
• The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped 13 basis points to 4.18%, its highest level since February 2025, reducing expectations for near-term monetary policy easing.
• The US Dollar Index strengthened 0.8% to 100.3, pressuring gold, which declined 1.7% as higher real yields weighed on precious metals.
• Brent crude extended its decline for a fifth consecutive session to around US$78 per barrel, a three-month low, as expectations grew for the signing of a US-Iran peace agreement.
• Consumer-facing sectors came under the greatest pressure, with Consumer Discretionary (-2.69%), Real Estate (-2.47%), Consumer Staples (-2.08%) and Communication Services (-2.98%) all recording sharp declines.
• The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot indicated 12.5 basis points of additional tightening by the end of 2026, prompting investors to price in a more restrictive interest rate environment.

ASX Company News

• IperionX Limited (ASX: IPX): IperionX completed the acquisition of the Camden critical minerals and infrastructure assets adjacent to its Titan Project in Tennessee, significantly expanding its position across the Big Sandy Critical Minerals Province. The acquisition provides approximately 70 acres of ultra-high-grade surface stockpiles, with historical bulk samples returning up to 23.0% Total Heavy Minerals (THM), representing a 5x to 10x grade uplift over Titan’s average 2.2% THM resource grade. The transaction also includes around 180 acres of pre-stripped Lower McNairy mineralisation, established industrial infrastructure with power, water, natural gas and heavy-haul rail access, and supports a lower-capital development pathway. IperionX will now progress drilling, metallurgical testing and an integrated Camden-Titan techno-economic study targeted for completion by the end of 2026 to strengthen domestic U.S. supply of titanium, zircon and heavy rare earth feedstocks.
• Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX: ALX): Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund (IFM GIF), confirmed it now holds more than 57% of Atlas Arteria securities and reiterated that its unconditional AU$5.10 per security takeover offer is best and final ahead of the 7 July 2026 closing date. IFM GIF also criticised Atlas Arteria’s decision to make a reactive US$100 million payment to extinguish the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) put option, stating it had previously offered funding support and believes a more favourable outcome for securityholders may have been achievable. Following completion of the offer, IFM GIF intends to undertake a comprehensive strategic and operational review focused on capital allocation, balance sheet management, operating performance and long-term value creation.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX): Telix announced successful alignment with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to advance Part 2 of the ProstACT Global Phase 3 trial evaluating TLX591-Tx for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The FDA confirmed that Part 1 safety and dosimetry results support progression into the U.S. study and agreed with the clinical protocol, statistical analysis plan and safety monitoring framework across three standard-of-care combination cohorts. The global Phase 3 trial is targeting enrolment of approximately 490 patients, while Part 2 continues recruiting in approved jurisdictions including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Türkiye and the United Kingdom, with additional regulatory approvals secured in China, Singapore and South Korea.
• Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX: CMM): Capricorn entered into a binding Share Sale Agreement with Sentinel Metals Limited to divest the Big Springs Gold Project in Nevada for total consideration of up to AU$26.0 million. The transaction comprises AU$8.5 million in cash, AU$5.0 million in Sentinel shares issued at the proposed capital raising price and up to AU$12.5 million in contingent milestone payments. Completion remains subject to Sentinel raising at least AU$15.0 million in new funds, shareholder approval for both the acquisition and capital raising, with Capricorn proposing to invest AU$3.0 million in the raising as part of the transaction structure.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia Retail Sales (11:30 am AEST): Provides an update on consumer spending trends and the strength of household demand.
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (11:45 am AEST): Measures manufacturing activity and offers insights into industrial demand and the outlook for commodity markets.
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (7:00 pm AEST): Indicates labour market conditions and may influence expectations for ECB monetary policy.
• US ADP Employment Change (10:15 pm AEST): Provides an early indication of private-sector hiring ahead of the official payrolls report.
• US Factory Orders (12:00 am AEST): Tracks demand for manufactured goods and serves as a key indicator of industrial activity.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (4:00 am AEST): Investors will look for further clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and policy direction.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker start after another soft Wall Street session led by heavy selling across technology and semiconductor stocks.
• Micron Technology's sharp decline may weigh on AI- and semiconductor-linked stocks following renewed concerns around technology valuations.
• Gold advanced as investors sought safe-haven assets, while copper, uranium and WTI crude oil declined, reflecting weaker sentiment across commodity markets.
• Bitcoin outperformed, rising 3.82% as renewed buying interest supported the cryptocurrency market.
• Higher global bond yields may keep investors focused on the outlook for interest rates and central bank policy.
• Australia's Retail Sales and China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for fresh signals on consumer spending and industrial activity.
• Investors will also monitor the FOMC Meeting Minutes and US ADP Employment data for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the strength of the US economy.

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