Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a positive opening, rising 21 points or 0.24%, following a strong recovery across US equities and a broad rebound in commodity markets.
• US benchmarks ended a three-day losing streak, supported by a broad rebound led by semiconductor stocks.
• Micron surged 12.1%, Intel gained 8.6% and AMD advanced 8.1%, while strong quarterly results from General Motors and 3M improved investor sentiment.
• The US announced 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, while renewed strikes on Iran lifted Brent crude by around 3% to US$91.63 per barrel.
• Gold rebounded 1.7% to US$4,079 per ounce, while copper jumped 2.97% to US$6.56 per pound amid signs of tightening supply conditions in China.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets finished mostly higher as investors returned to risk-sensitive assets following a rebound across US technology and semiconductor shares. The S&P 500 advanced 0.89% to 7,509.00, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.29% gain to 25,837.00. The Dow Jones also strengthened, rising 0.74% to 52,225.00. In Europe, the FTSE 100 added 0.58% to 10,586.00, supported by improved market sentiment. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite climbed 1.17% to 35,369.00, reflecting broad buying interest. Asian markets delivered mixed results. Japan’s Nikkei surged 3.26% to 66,232.00, recording the strongest performance among the listed indices. In contrast, India declined 0.31% to 77,470.00, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 slipped 0.29% to 13,656.00. Overall, global sentiment improved, although regional performance remained uneven. Investors nevertheless remained attentive to geopolitical risks, tariffs, commodity movements and upcoming earnings.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets recorded strong gains as geopolitical tensions, supply concerns and improving investor sentiment supported broad-based buying across energy, industrial metals and precious metals. Gold rose 1.79% to US$4,079.61 per ounce, benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid heightened global uncertainty. WTI crude oil gained 2.26% to US$84.34 per barrel on concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Copper jumped 3.02% to US$6.49 per pound as tightening supply conditions and resilient industrial demand boosted prices. Uranium advanced 4.73% to US$5,324.17, reflecting continued optimism surrounding global nuclear energy investment, while silver climbed 3.68% to US$59.17 per ounce, tracking the broader rally in precious metals. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rose 1.82% to US$66,291, supported by improving investor sentiment and stronger demand for risk-oriented assets.Bond Yields

Global sovereign bond yields were broadly stable with a modest upward bias. Australia’s 10-year yield increased by 3.0 basis points to 4.982%, indicating continued market sensitivity to persistent inflation and the possibility of interest rates remaining restrictive for longer. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged 0.2 basis points higher to 4.628%, while the 30-year yield held at 5.131%, reflecting limited repricing across the long end of the curve. Japan’s 10-year yield remained unchanged at 2.721%. Overall, fixed-income markets maintained a cautious stance as investors assessed central bank policy trajectories, inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty.Key Drivers

• Semiconductor shares outperformed, as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF advanced 4.5%, supported by sharp gains in Micron (+12.1%), Intel (+8.6%), AMD (+8.1%) and Nvidia (+1.9%).
• Copper surged 2.9% to US$6.56/lb, approaching record highs amid robust Chinese buying and ongoing supply disruptions in Chile and Peru.
• US-Iran tensions escalated following fresh US military strikes, keeping geopolitical risks elevated across global markets.
• Goldman Sachs warned Brent crude could reach US$120/bbl by Q4 if Middle East tensions intensify and disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Corporate earnings remained supportive, with General Motors and 3M exceeding expectations and raising guidance, reinforcing confidence in the US earnings season.
• Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in Nebius Group, boosting optimism around AI infrastructure and cloud computing investments.
• US trade policy tightened, with President Trump announcing 50% tariffs on selected Canadian imports and additional measures targeting strategic industries.

ASX Company News

• SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited (ASX: SKC) entered into a non-binding head of agreement to sell The Grand Hotel as part of its asset monetisation strategy. Completion remains subject to due diligence, binding documentation and New Zealand Overseas Investment Office approval. The expected proceeds will support debt reduction and enhance financial flexibility.
• Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (ASX: CWY) appointed Nigel Simonsz as Chief Financial Officer, effective 27 July 2026, following Paul Binfield's resignation. The company expects FY26 underlying EBIT of approximately AU$470 million, around the midpoint of its previously announced guidance.
• Argosy Minerals Limited (ASX: AGY) completed successful evaporation and concentration testwork for its 12,000-tonne-per-annum Rincon Lithium Project. The pilot program increased lithium concentration from around 1.3wt% to 4–5wt% while demonstrating condensate water recovery of approximately 75–83%, supporting project optimisation and DFS advancement.
• Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) expanded the Inferred Mineral Resource at its ABC Gold Project in Côte d'Ivoire to 133 million tonnes grading 0.71 g/t gold for 3.0Moz. The company plans an 80,000-metre drilling program and a US$15–25 million work program to advance feasibility studies and progress the mining application by the end of 2027.
• Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) successfully completed the ramp-up of the Langer Heinrich Mine, producing 1.23Mlb U₃O₈ in Q4 FY26 and 4.82Mlb for FY26, meeting the upper end of guidance. The company expects FY27 production of 5.1–5.6Mlb U₃O₈, sales of 4.8–5.3Mlb, production costs of US$44–48/lb and capital expenditure of US$29–35 million. Paladin also progressed the Patterson Lake South Project through key regulatory milestones and announced the high-grade Atlas uranium discovery in Canada.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Japan Balance of Trade (9:50 am AEST): Investors will assess export and import trends for fresh insights into Japan's economic momentum and regional trade activity.
• UK Inflation (4:00 pm AEST): The latest CPI data will be closely monitored for clues on the Bank of England's future interest rate path.
• Copper Price Momentum: Copper remains near record highs, with sustained strength likely to support sentiment across ASX-listed copper producers.
• Middle East Geopolitical Developments: Markets will continue tracking developments involving the US and Iran for potential implications on oil prices and global risk sentiment.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a firmer opening, supported by positive US equity markets and stronger commodity prices.
• Australian copper, gold, silver and diversified mining stocks may remain in focus after strong overnight gains in commodity prices, which are expected to support sentiment across the domestic resources sector.
• Higher crude oil prices may benefit energy producers but could also increase inflation expectations and delay monetary policy easing.
• Escalating tensions involving the US and Iran remain the principal near-term geopolitical risk, particularly due to the potential effect on the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi oil supplies.
• New US tariffs on Canadian goods may intensify trade uncertainty and place pressure on corporate margins and consumer prices.
• A quality-focused investment approach remains appropriate, prioritising companies with solid balance sheets, resilient profitability and sustainable cash flow generation.

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