ASX 200 Preview: Market Slides as Global Tech Selloff Deepens

1. ASX 200 Opens Lower:

The ASX 200 is trading down 0.23% at 8,793.5 (10:56 am AEDT), setting a new 20-day low as weakness in Materials continues to drag on the broader market. The index has now lost 1.5% over the past five sessions and sits 3.5% below its 52-week high.

SPI futures are pointing to a mildly negative day, mirroring overnight weakness in US markets and ongoing softness across commodities. The biggest laggards this morning are Liontown Resources (–7.52%) and Paladin Energy (–7.00%), both hit by sharp declines in lithium and uranium prices overnight.

2. Wall Street Rallies, Cyclicals Lead

US benchmarks extended their pullback overnight as valuations in high-growth sectors came under renewed scrutiny.

Dow Jones: –0.53%

S&P 500: –1.17%

Nasdaq: –2.04%

Russell 2000: –1.78%

The Information Technology (–2.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (–1.85%) sectors led losses, while defensives — Financials (+0.55%), Consumer Staples (+0.52%), and Health Care (+0.40%) — outperformed slightly.

Palantir shares fell almost 8% despite strong earnings, after Michael Burry disclosed a 5-million-share put option position. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped around 6%, hovering just above US$100,000, extending its 20% slide from October highs.

Market commentary remains focused on valuation risks, with several Wall Street CEOs warning of a potential 10–20% equity correction in the short-to-medium term..

3. Sector Performance — ASX

Sector breadth is slightly improved, with 8 of 11 sectors higher despite the overall market decline.

Leaders: Utilities (+0.94%), Financials (+0.76%), Telecommunications (+0.49%), Industrials (+0.39%)

Laggards: Materials (–2.39%), Information Technology (–2.04%), Energy (–0.79%)

Utilities are rebounding after five days of losses (–3.8% over the week), while the weakness in Materials and Tech continues to dominate the downside.

4. Commodity Watch

Gold: –1.72% to US$3,933.7/oz, pressured by higher yields.

Copper: –2.53% to US$4.90/lb, as industrial sentiment weakens.

WTI Oil: –1.16% to US$60.39/bbl, consolidating near two-week lows.

AUD/USD: –0.81% to 0.6485, weighed by soft commodities and firm USD.

Bitcoin: –5.9% to US$100,645, extending its technical bear-market move.

5. Corporate Earnings in Focus

Broker Moves:

• James Hardie upgraded to Buy (from Neutral) by Citi; target lifted to $36.50 (from $33.00).
• Sovereign Metals downgraded to Neutral (from Outperform) by Macquarie; target cut to $0.65 (from $1.00).

Dividends Paid: Gowing Bros (GOW), Tasmea (TEA)

Ex-Dividend: None today.

6. Macro-Economic Data:

RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments yesterday warning of stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure continue to weigh on sentiment. The probability of a May rate cut has fallen to 69%, down from a fully priced-in move just weeks ago.

Bond yields remain elevated, and traders expect further hawkish commentary in upcoming RBA minutes. Globally, markets are eyeing US economic data and corporate earnings for signs of slowdown.

7. Kapitales Research Take

The ASX 200 continues to drift lower, with Materials and Energy stocks leading the declines while Utilities and Financials provide some offset. Lithium and uranium names are seeing heavy profit-taking following steep commodity price drops.

Momentum has turned negative, and we expect the index to remain range-bound between 8,780 and 8,820 through the session. Volatility is likely to persist as investors reassess risk appetite amid shifting rate expectations and fading global growth sentiment.

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