Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker start, down 51 points (-0.57%) after a broad selloff on Wall Street.
• US stocks declined sharply, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.52% after reversing late-session gains.
• The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but a hawkish stance and three dissenting votes for a rate hike unsettled investors.
• US Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007.
• Renewed US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude up 6% to US$88 per barrel after Iran launched missiles at US bases in Jordan and President Trump pledged retaliation.

Global Markets Overview

Global markets ended on a mixed note, with US equities experiencing broad-based weakness as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Dow Jones posted the sharpest decline, falling 2.19% to 51,594.00, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which dropped 1.74% to 24,443.00, while the S&P 500 lost 1.52% to close at 7,316.00. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite declined 1.16% to 35,334.00, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment. European markets were relatively resilient, with the FTSE 100 advancing 0.34% to 10,908.00. Across the Asia-Pacific region, performance was mixed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.49% to 61,434.00, while India outperformed major global peers, rising 1.16% to 77,655.00, supported by strong domestic sentiment despite heightened global uncertainty. New Zealand’s NZX 50 gained 0.83% to 13,977.00.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded broadly higher, led by a sharp rally in energy and precious metals as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand and raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. WTI crude oil surged 6.56% to US$84.46 per barrel, recording the strongest gain among major commodities. Gold advanced 1.21% to US$4,077.21 per ounce, while silver rose 1.50% to US$58.39 per ounce, reflecting increased investor demand for defensive assets. Copper edged 0.03% higher to US$6.33 per pound, indicating steady industrial demand expectations. The only major underperformer was uranium, which declined 2.77% to US$5,038.52. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin gained 0.42% to US$63,976.00, extending its resilience despite broader financial market volatility. Overall, commodity markets remained well supported by rising geopolitical risks, while cryptocurrencies also posted modest gains amid cautious investor sentiment.Bond Yields

Global bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the interest rate outlook following the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose 6.9 basis points to 5.212%, reaching its highest level in years and reflecting expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 4.675%, signalling continued pressure across the Treasury market. In Australia, the 10-year government bond yield increased 6.1 basis points to 4.975%, tracking the global rise in sovereign yields. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield stood at 2.755%, remaining near multi-year highs as markets continued to monitor the Bank of Japan's policy direction. Overall, the rise in global bond yields reflected persistent inflation concerns, hawkish central bank expectations, and a reduced appetite for fixed-income assets.Key Drivers

• US markets closed sharply lower, with the S&P 500 reversing from gains to a 1.52% loss in the final hour.
• Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but a rare 9-3 vote split reinforced a hawkish outlook.
• US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.21%, its highest level since July 2007.
• Markets now price around a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, with a 25-bps hike fully priced by December.
• Renewed US-Iran tensions lifted WTI crude oil about 6.6% after missile attacks and retaliation threats.
• Global chip stocks have erased about US$1.3 trillion in market value since Friday, led by Nvidia.
• South Korea's Kospi plunged as much as 13% intraday before closing down 6%, triggering another circuit breaker.
• Microsoft beat expectations, driven by strong Azure growth, sending shares higher in after-hours trading.
• SK Hynix declined sharply after reporting earnings below market expectations despite strong profit growth.
• Australia's annual inflation slowed to 3.8% in June from 4.0% in May, coming in below forecasts and reducing market expectations for another near-term RBA interest rate increase.

ASX Company News

• Ampol Limited (ASX: ALD) expects unaudited first-half FY26 RCOP EBITDA of approximately AU$1.60 billion, compared with AU$649 million a year earlier, while RCOP EBIT is expected to reach around AU$1.35 billion, up from AU$404 million. The Lytton Refiner Margin averaged US$28.26 per barrel, supported by tight regional fuel supply, while refinery production increased 8.7% to 2,945 million litres. Australian fuel sales excluding net-sell rose 2.8%, reflecting supply-chain resilience and stronger Convenience Retail volumes. Ampol also completed the AU$1.165 billion acquisition of EG Australia, targeting annual synergies of AU$65–80 million within two years.
• Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) produced 109,013 ounces of gold in the June quarter at an all-in site cost of US$1,941 per ounce. Gold sales reached 114,567 ounces at an average realised price of US$4,086 per ounce, generating a cash margin of US$2,145 per ounce and notional operating cash flow of US$216 million. Cash and bullion increased to US$1.03 billion, alongside US$233 million in liquid listed securities. The Nyanzaga project reached 67% completion, while CMA Underground produced 8,472 ounces. Perseus also increased its share buyback programme to AU$150 million and issued FY27 production guidance of 420,000–480,000 ounces.
• PLS Group Limited (ASX: PLS) delivered record FY26 production and sales of 879.5kt and 891.6kt, respectively, both increasing 17% year-on-year. June-quarter revenue rose 31% to AU$743 million, supported by record sales of 249.9kt and a 13% increase in the realised spodumene price to US$2,107 per tonne. Cash margin from operations advanced 26% to AU$579 million, while cash increased 57% to AU$2.29 billion, including proceeds from a US$600 million bond issue. PLS guided FY27 production at 1.03–1.10 million tonnes and approved approximately AU$175 million in pre-FID expenditure for the P2000 expansion.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am (AEST): Australia Building Permits – A key indicator of housing market activity and construction sector momentum.
• 7:00 pm (AEST): Eurozone GDP Growth – Investors will assess the strength of economic activity across the euro area.
• 9:00 pm (AEST): Bank of England Interest Rate Decision – Markets expect the BoE to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%.
• 10:30 pm (AEST): US Core PCE Price Index – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, closely watched for clues on the future path of US interest rates.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a 51-point lower open following a sharp Wall Street selloff.
• US equities declined broadly after the Fed signalled a more hawkish policy outlook.
• US Treasury yields climbed, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007.
• WTI crude oil surged over 6% as renewed US-Iran tensions heightened supply concerns.
• Microsoft beat earnings expectations, while Meta and SK Hynix disappointed investors.
• Renewed Middle East tensions increased risk aversion and lifted global energy prices.
• Investors should remain cautious as elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over future central bank policy could keep global market volatility high.

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