Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 40-point, or 0.43%, decline, pointing to a weaker market opening.
• Wall Street closed lower for a second straight session amid US-Iran tensions and caution ahead of the US CPI release.
• Ongoing US-Iran tensions continued to weigh on global market sentiment, with negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz remaining in focus.
• Brent crude oil advanced 1.6% to US$89.3 per barrel amid geopolitical uncertainty and developments surrounding Hormuz negotiations.
• Intel raised US$20 billion through an expanded share offering, while Nvidia’s AI financing coalition supported gains across leading asset managers.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded with a cautious bias as investors assessed geopolitical uncertainty, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment. US equities ended lower, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones declining, while the Nasdaq recorded the sharpest fall among the three major indices. European equities were also subdued, with the FTSE 100 closing marginally lower. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite bucked the broader weakness and finished slightly higher. In Oceania, New Zealand’s NZX 50 declined, reflecting softer market sentiment. Japan’s equity market was closed on Tuesday for the Mountain Day national holiday. Indian equities also ended lower, extending the broadly cautious tone across major markets. Overall, global equity performance was predominantly negative, with Canada emerging as the notable exception, as investors remained cautious amid geopolitical developments and awaited key macroeconomic data for further direction.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance, with energy and industrial commodities outperforming precious metals. WTI crude oil advanced amid heightened geopolitical tensions and supply-related concerns, while copper posted a modest gain. Uranium was the strongest performer among the listed commodities, recording a notable increase. In contrast, precious metals remained under pressure, with both gold and silver declining during the session. Overall, commodity performance reflected stronger momentum in energy and industrial-linked assets, while precious metals experienced selling pressure.Bitcoin traded lower, reflecting subdued sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. The decline coincided with broader weakness in US equities and cautious risk appetite ahead of key macroeconomic data. Digital asset sentiment remained sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations, inflation signals, and broader financial-market risk appetite.Bond Yields

Global bond markets showed a mixed trend. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged lower, indicating modest buying interest in domestic sovereign debt. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also declined, suggesting some easing in longer-term yield pressure. In contrast, US Treasury yields moved higher across the long end of the curve. The US 10-year Treasury yield increased, while the 30-year yield recorded a comparatively larger rise, pointing to greater upward pressure on longer-term borrowing costs. The movement in US yields reflected investor caution ahead of key inflation data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Overall, Australian and Japanese sovereign yields softened, while US yields moved higher, highlighting divergent conditions across major fixed-income markets. Investors remain focused on inflation trends, central bank policy expectations, economic growth signals, and geopolitical developments for direction in global bond markets.Key Drivers

• US equity benchmarks closed lower after opening higher, with markets fading steadily toward session lows.
• Equal-weight S&P 500 gained 0.21% and reached a record high, outperforming the cap-weighted index by 53 bps.
• Big Tech weakened, led by SpaceX (-3.9%) and Alphabet (-3.6%), amid continued scrutiny of AI capital expenditure.
• Intel raised US$20 billion through an upsized share sale after receiving more than US$100 billion in demand.
• CoreWeave Q2 FY26 revenue surged 112% to US$2.6 billion, while its net loss widened to US$626 million.
• Super Micro Q4 FY26 revenue jumped 93% to US$11.1 billion, with FY27 revenue guidance of US$65–72 billion.
• Morgan Stanley launched a US$1.5 trillion initiative targeting US technology, infrastructure and strategic industries.
• US-Iran negotiations showed signs of progress over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Pakistan’s defence minister.
• Saudi Aramco delayed the Jazan refinery restart to 30 August following further damage from a Houthi attack.
• Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic fell to six vessels on Monday versus an average of around 11.
• The RBA kept interest rates unchanged, while its policy communication adopted a more hawkish tone.
• Cleveland Fed's Hammack indicated multiple rate hikes may be required to contain inflation.
• Singapore upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5–5.5%, driven by robust AI-related investment.
• US existing home sales declined 1.7% month-on-month in July to a 4.06 million annualised pace.

ASX Company News

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) delivered FY26 cash NPAT of AU$10,982 million, up 7%, while pre-provision profit increased 6% to AU$16,469 million and ROE improved to 14.0%. Operating expenses rose 6% and loan impairment expense increased 9% to AU$788 million. The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of AU$2.70 per share, taking the FY26 dividend to AU$5.05 per share.
• Suncorp Group Limited (ASX: SUN) reported FY26 cash earnings of AU$1,042 million, while underlying earnings increased 4.5% to AU$1,636 million. Gross written premium rose 2.7%, although elevated natural hazard costs weighed on reported earnings. Suncorp declared a 52-cent final dividend, a 10-cent special dividend and announced an additional on-market share buy-back of up to AU$250 million.
• AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) reported FY26 underlying EBITDA of AU$2,100 million, up 2%, while underlying NPAT declined 2% to AU$631 million. Statutory profit increased to AU$756 million, supported by the Tilt Renewables divestment. For FY27, AGL guided to underlying EBITDA of AU$1,900–2,200 million and underlying NPAT of AU$470–670 million.
• FleetPartners Group Limited (ASX: FPR) received a revised non-binding proposal from SG Fleet at AU$4.00 per share, alongside an AU$3.80 per share proposal from ORIX. The Board rejected Element Fleet Management’s request for exclusivity associated with its enhanced AU$4.00 per share indicative offer. FleetPartners continues to assess all three proposals.
• Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME) signed a seven-year, AU$23 million contract with St. Luke’s Health System for its cloud-based Visage 7 Viewer and Workflow platform. The deployment will span operations across three US states under a transaction-based licensing model, with go-live targeted for the first quarter of calendar 2027.
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH) was selected as the preferred underground mining contractor for Medallion Metals’ Ravensthorpe Gold Project. The proposed contract has an initial 36-month term valued at approximately AU$240 million, with works expected to commence in the December quarter of 2026.
• Tivan Limited (ASX: TVN) announced that Japan Australia Fluorite Associates received a further AU$3 million in grant funding for the Speewah Fluorite Project. Total funding received under the grant has reached AU$6.4 million, supporting the ongoing Definitive Feasibility Study scheduled for completion later in 2026.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Flagship Investments Limited (ASX: FSI): Dividend of AU$0.053 per share.
• Sandon Capital Investments Limited (ASX: SNC): Dividend of AU$0.005 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• US CPI Inflation: Headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.5%, with the release scheduled for 10:30 pm AEST.
• US Core Inflation (10:30 pm AEST): Core CPI is expected to moderate to 2.5% from 2.6%, providing an important signal on underlying inflationary pressures.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Inflation data will be closely watched for its implications for the Fed’s next interest-rate decision and the trajectory of US Treasury yields.
• US-Iran Developments: Progress around Strait of Hormuz negotiations remains important for crude oil prices, inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 40-point, or 0.43%, decline following a weaker close across US equity markets.
• US equities closed lower for a second consecutive session, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the declines.
• US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain key drivers of global risk sentiment and energy markets.
• Brent crude rose 1.6% to US$89.3 per barrel amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent supply concerns.
• US Treasury yields moved higher as investors positioned cautiously ahead of the closely watched US inflation release.
• Intel raised US$20 billion through an upsized share sale after attracting more than US$100 billion in investor demand.
• The equal-weight S&P 500 gained 0.21% and reached a record high despite weakness in the broader market.
• Big Tech stocks came under pressure as investors continued to scrutinise elevated AI-related capital expenditure.
• The RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected, while maintaining a comparatively hawkish policy stance.
• US core CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%, which could influence the Fed’s next rate decision.

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