Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 24-point, or 0.26%, decline, signalling a softer start for the Australian equity market.
• US markets finished mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining despite easing from session highs.
• The July US CPI reading of 3.4% tempered expectations of a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded mixed as investors assessed the latest US inflation data, corporate earnings, and broader economic developments. US equities were mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advancing, supported by softer inflation concerns and strong gains across AI and technology-related stocks. The Dow Jones ended marginally lower.European equities remained subdued, with the FTSE 100 edging lower amid cautious investor sentiment. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite advanced, supported by strength across commodity-linked and financial stocks. In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei advanced, supported by strength in technology shares, while Indian equities finished lower amid cautious sentiment. In Oceania, New Zealand’s NZX 50 declined amid broader selling pressure. Overall, global markets showed divergent trends, with technology-led optimism supporting selected markets while geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on risk sentiment.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets showed varied trends as investors assessed inflation developments, geopolitical risks, and the outlook for global demand. Precious metals strengthened, with gold and silver gaining on safe-haven demand and easing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.Energy markets remained relatively stable, with crude oil supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding global supply conditions. In contrast, copper weakened amid concerns over softer industrial demand, particularly from China, while uranium remained broadly stable.Cryptocurrency markets were slightly weaker, with Bitcoin declining as investors maintained a cautious stance following the latest US inflation data and assessed its implications for monetary policy. Overall, precious metals remained supported by defensive demand, while industrial commodities and digital assets reflected a more cautious global risk environment.Bond Yields

Global bond markets remained sensitive to evolving inflation expectations and the monetary policy outlook. Australian 10-year government bond yields edged lower, reflecting modest demand for sovereign debt as investors reassessed the domestic interest-rate trajectory.In Japan, 10-year government bond yields remained elevated, as markets continued to price in the prospect of further monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained relatively steady as investors assessed the latest inflation data and its potential implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. US 30-year Treasury yields edged slightly higher, reflecting a measured adjustment at the longer end of the yield curve. Overall, bond market movements reflected a cautious reassessment of the global rate environment, with central bank policy expectations remaining the key driver of sovereign yields.Key Drivers

• US equities finished mostly higher, although major benchmarks closed below their session highs amid relatively narrow trading.
• Technology led sector gains, as the AI-driven rally broadened across cloud, server and semiconductor stocks.
• Market volatility eased, with the VIX falling to its lowest level since late December, reflecting reduced investor concerns over near-term market volatility.
• US Treasury yields edged lower following the in-line inflation report, with the 2-year yield declining as rate-hike expectations moderated.
• US headline CPI increased 0.1% month-on-month in July, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, in line with market expectations.
• US core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in July, in line with market expectations.
• Expectations for a September Fed rate hike eased, although upcoming inflation and economic data remain important for the policy outlook.
• CoreWeave rallied around 19%, supported by strong revenue growth, a larger backlog and higher capital expenditure guidance.
• Super Micro gained around 19%, following an earnings beat, strong order growth and an upbeat FY27 revenue outlook.
• Cisco delivered better-than-expected results, supported by strong product orders, although its shares declined in after-hours trading.
• Asian semiconductor stocks advanced, with Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC driving a 1.1% gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
• Middle East tensions remained a key market risk, with developments around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping keeping energy supply concerns in focus.

ASX Company News

• Insurance Australia Group Limited (ASX: IAG) reported FY26 NPAT of AU$1,022 million, down from AU$1,359 million, as higher natural peril costs weighed on reported earnings. However, underlying insurance profit increased to AU$1,578 million and GWP rose 7.6% to AU$18,412 million. The Board approved a 20-cent final dividend, taking the FY26 dividend to 32 cents per share. IAG expects FY27 GWP growth of 5%–8% and an insurance margin of 14.5%–16.5%.
• Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (ASX: CWY) received a conditional, non-binding proposal from EQT Infrastructure to acquire the company for AU$3.13 per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately AU$9.4 billion and a 32.1% premium to its previous closing price. The Board has granted EQT up to nine weeks of exclusive due diligence and intends to recommend a binding proposal on acceptable terms, subject to conditions. Cleanaway also expects FY27 underlying EBIT of AU$500–530 million.
• Telstra Group Limited (ASX: TLS) delivered FY26 reported EBITDAaL of AU$8.2 billion, up 3%, while NPAT increased 2.7% to AU$2.4 billion and EPS rose 5.3% to 19.9 cents. Underlying EBITDAaL increased 4% to AU$8.3 billion and cash EPS rose 14% to 25.5 cents. The Board declared a final dividend of 10.5 cents per share, taking the full-year dividend to 21 cents per share, and announced a further on-market share buy-back of up to AU$1 billion. For FY27, Telstra expects underlying EBITDAaL of AU$8.5–8.8 billion and cash EBIT of AU$4.75–4.95 billion.
• ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) reported 3Q26 statutory profit of AU$1.95 billion and cash profit of AU$1.90 billion, with cash profit rising 1% versus the 1H26 quarterly average. The CET1 ratio improved to 12.51%, while customer deposits increased 2% and net loans and advances rose 3% from March 2026.
• Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE) reported FY26 EBITS of AU$492.3 million, down 36.1% but ahead of its AU$480–490 million guidance range, while net sales revenue declined 12.8% to AU$2,561.0 million. The company recorded a statutory NPAT loss of AU$1,078.7 million, largely reflecting non-cash impairments of US-based assets. TWE expects FY27 EBITS to be at least in line with FY26 and remains on track to deliver AU$100 million of annual cost reductions through its Ascent transformation by FY29.
• Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND) was awarded new contracts worth more than AU$110 million for construction and maintenance work across the resources, energy and infrastructure industries. The awards include work for Santos on the APF Tie-In Project in Papua New Guinea, a Pilbara Ports contract for the Utah Ring Road Reconstruction Project, and a 12-month services contract at Glencore’s Murrin Murrin Operations in Western Australia.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ): Dividend of AU$0.15 per share.
• Reckon Limited (ASX: RKN): Dividend of AU$0.025 per share.
• Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO): Dividend of AU$3.029 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• UK Q2 GDP – 4:00 pm AEST: The release will provide an update on UK economic growth and could influence expectations for the Bank of England’s policy outlook.
• US PPI – 10:30 pm AEST: July producer inflation will be closely watched for signs of upstream price pressures and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy.
• Federal Reserve Rate Outlook: Markets will continue assessing the probability of a September rate move following the latest inflation data, with upcoming economic releases likely to shape expectations.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 24-point, or 0.26%, decline ahead of key earnings releases from Telstra, Transurban, and other major companies.
• Expectations for a September Fed rate hike moderated following the latest inflation reading.
• Technology led US sector gains, supported by continued momentum across AI infrastructure stocks.
• Asian semiconductor stocks advanced, supported by continued optimism around global AI and chip demand.
• Precious metals strengthened, with gold and silver benefiting from safe-haven demand and easing rate concerns.
• Middle East tensions remained a key risk, with the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping developments in focus.
• UK Q2 GDP and US PPI are key upcoming releases, with both likely to influence global growth and interest-rate expectations.

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