Markets Today (23 October 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. ASX Outlook

• The ASX 200 is set to open lower, with futures down 15 points (-0.16%) at 8:30 am Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
• A soft U.S. lead and rising U.S.-China trade tensions weigh on sentiment, while Energy and defensive sectors provided relative strength overnight.

2. Overnight US Markets

Major U.S. indices closed lower but well-off intraday lows:
• S&P 500: -0.53%
• Dow Jones: -0.71%
• NASDAQ: -0.93%
• Russell 2000: -1.45%
The session saw weakness in growth names after disappointing corporate earnings from Netflix (-10%) and Texas Instruments (-5.6%), while trade concerns resurfaced as Trump considered fresh software export curbs to China. Energy and Staples managed modest gains as investors shifted toward defensives.

3. US Sector Performance

Sectors rotated defensively, with only a handful finishing higher.
Leaders:
• Energy +1.32%
• Consumer Staples +0.64%
• Health Care +0.61%
• Real Estate +0.42%

Laggards:
• Industrials -1.31%
• Consumer Discretionary -1.00%
• Communication Services -0.88%
• Information Technology -0.79%

4. Commodities

Commodity prices were mixed overnight:
• Gold: -0.63% to US$4,098.4/oz – whipsawed after a volatile session but found support at intraday lows.
• Copper: +1.41% to US$4.97/lb – boosted by strong demand signals from China.
• WTI Oil: +3.69% to US$59.38/bbl – extended gains on inventory drawdowns and supply concerns.
• Aluminium: extended recent gains, now up 9.4% Year to Date and at its highest since June 2022.

5. Overnight Highlights

• Trade tensions: Trump considers curbs on U.S. software exports to China, reigniting tariff concerns.
• Earnings: Netflix and Texas Instruments disappoint on guidance and margins; Meta to cut ~600 AI jobs.
• Commodities: Alcoa to invest US$60m in U.S. smelter; aluminium prices surge.
• Geopolitics: European Union and Ukraine draft 12-point plan to resist Russian demands; White House halts Trump-Putin summit.

6. What to Watch Today

Local corporate news:
• Alcoa’s expansion plans and aluminium price surge may buoy South32 (S32) and other resource names.
• Inghams Group (ING): reportedly testing takeover interest from JBS and Mitsubishi.
• Telix (TLX): dosed first patient in SOLACE trial for metastatic bone pain.
• Major AGMs today include ASX, BHP, Cochlear, IAG, South32, and others — investor commentary on outlooks will be key.

Macro:
• No major local data releases.
• Markets likely to trade defensively amid U.S.-China headlines and ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns.

7. Our Take at Kapitales Research

Markets remain in a holding pattern as trade risks and mixed U.S. earnings cloud sentiment. Defensive positioning continues, with gold’s volatility and oil’s rally underscoring investor uncertainty. We see near-term resilience in Energy and Materials, supported by aluminium and copper strength. However, tech and consumer sectors may stay under pressure following weak U.S. leads. The ASX 200 is poised for a softer open, with attention on resource names, key AGMs, and corporate moves around Inghams and Telix.

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com