Power Play in Mineral Markets

Highlights:

• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) chair Ross McEwan downplays risks of being caught between the U.S. and China, calling the critical minerals competition “two powerful nations flexing their muscles.”
• U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently signed a critical minerals pact to reduce reliance on China, with BHP signalling support for cooperation.
• BHP warns of “difficult decisions” ahead for its Australian metallurgical coal operations due to low returns and high state royalties, following recent job cuts and mine suspensions.

At the time of writing, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) sees itself navigating the growing rivalry between the United States and China over critical‐minerals supply without picking sides. McEwan stressed that BHP is “not caught between” its major customer China and the world’s largest economy, the U.S. Instead, the miner is doubling down on its strategy of working with all parties while focusing on mainstream commodities such as copper, iron ore and coal.

Strategic Context and Alliance Shifts

Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical‐minerals agreement intended to reduce the U.S.’ reliance on China’s dominance in the sector. At the time of writing, the pact emphasises joint investment, processing and supply chain security.

In response, BHP’s CEO Mike Henry outlined Australia’s readiness to help the U.S. de-risk its mineral supply chains, citing a planned Arizona copper project with Rio Tinto Group that could meet a quarter of U.S. copper demand.

Looking Ahead: Business Implications

While BHP emphasises a neutral stance, the miner acknowledged upcoming tough calls on its Australian metallurgical-coal business. At the time of writing, a low return on capital and elevated royalties have triggered job cuts and mining suspensions, signalling cost pressures ahead if tax or structural revisions don’t come through.

For investors and industry watchers, the key will be how BHP balances its commodity-focus strategy with the shifting geopolitics of minerals. As governments intensify efforts to diversify away from China, miners like BHP may find themselves at a strategic pivot—expected to serve traditional markets while being dragged into larger supply-chain and security debates.

In short: the mineral chessboard is shifting, and BHP is playing the quiet, adaptable piece rather than picking a side.

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