U.S. Jobless Claims Tick Up Amid Government Shutdown

Highlights:

• Jobless claims rise: At the time of writing, economists estimate 232,000 new unemployment filings for the week ended October 18, up from 220,000 a week earlier.
• Data gaps due to shutdown: With the U.S. government shutdown halting official reports, economists used partial state data and seasonal adjustments to estimate figures.
• Labour market still steady: Despite the uptick, no major surge in layoffs has been detected, suggesting the U.S. job market remains resilient but softening.

“At the time of writing” weekly filings stand at about 232,000

Economists at Citigroup Inc. and Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company estimate that applications for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended October 18, up from 220,000 the prior week. Rival projections included figures of 227,000 from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and 229,000 from JPMorgan Chase & Co..

Shutdown Clouds Labour Market View

With the U.S. government shutdown forcing a halt in the release of certain historical labour-market datasets, economists have had to rely on partial state data and seasonal adjustment models. States that lacked full reports—such as Tennessee, Massachusetts and Colorado—were estimated using methods similar to those employed by the U.S. Department of Labor when data is missing. Despite new claim figures remaining within historical ranges, the pause in full reporting is generating caution among analysts.

Softening Signs, But No Layoff Surge

While the uptick signals a modest loss of momentum in the labour market, economists emphasise that there is no evidence of widespread mass layoffs. Continuing claims— a gauge of how many remain on benefit rolls after their initial week—also edged higher to roughly 1.942 million in early October. Given the shutdown disruption and the fact that federal workers use a separate programme, some of the rise may be structural rather than systemic.

What It Could Mean for Policy

The increase in filings, although moderate, comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is weighing future interest-rate decisions amid signs of a cooling labour market. A sustained rise in claims could raise pressure for the Fed to reconsider the pace of policy tightening. However, for now, layoff risk remains contained and the labour force appears resilient.

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