Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicated a 36-point, or 0.40%, decline as US-Iran talks collapsed.
• Wall Street declined for a second consecutive session amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
• Bond yields pressured equities, with the US 10-year yield reaching its highest level since January 2025.
• The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a fresh 19-year high amid persistent fiscal and inflation concerns.
• Rising government debt, with annual US deficits near US$2 trillion, contributed to the surge in bond yields.
• Brent crude rose 2.5% to US$91.09, while sticky inflation and Fed policy uncertainty added further pressure.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded on a cautious note, with most major benchmarks closing lower amid elevated bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns around the global interest-rate environment. US equities weakened across the board, as higher Treasury yields pressured valuations and dampened broader risk appetite. Technology stocks demonstrated relative resilience, limiting weakness in the Nasdaq compared with other major US indices.European equities also softened, with the UK market retreating as investors remained cautious over the global macroeconomic outlook. Canadian equities recorded a modest decline, showing comparatively better resilience despite weaker global sentiment.In Oceania, New Zealand equities underperformed, with the NZX 50 experiencing notable selling pressure. Asian markets delivered mixed signals, as Japanese equities advanced and stood out as a key outperformer, while Indian equities moved lower amid subdued investor sentiment. Overall, global market conditions remained defensive, shaped by rising bond yields, inflation concerns, geopolitical developments, and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.Commodities & Crypto

Commodities traded with a broadly positive bias, supported by stronger demand for energy and precious metals amid heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold advanced as investors sought defensive assets, while silver also strengthened, benefiting from improved precious-metals sentiment.Energy markets were particularly firm, with WTI crude recording a strong gain as geopolitical tensions increased concerns around potential supply disruptions. Uranium also moved higher, maintaining positive momentum amid continued interest in nuclear energy and long-term energy security. Copper was broadly unchanged, suggesting a more cautious outlook for industrial demand despite strength across other commodity segments. The muted performance reflected lingering uncertainty surrounding global manufacturing and economic growth conditions.Cryptocurrency markets also strengthened, with Bitcoin posting a solid advance as risk appetite improved across digital assets. Overall, energy, precious metals, uranium, and cryptocurrencies attracted buying interest, while copper remained comparatively subdued amid mixed signals for the global industrial economy.Bond Yields

Global bond markets remained under pressure as elevated sovereign yields continued to reflect persistent inflation concerns, fiscal risks, and uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook. Australian government bond yields moved higher, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain restrictive for longer and potentially increasing financing costs across the domestic economy.Japanese government bond yields remained elevated, as investors continued to assess the implications of monetary policy normalisation and changing inflation dynamics.US Treasury yields also strengthened, with the shorter end of the presented maturity spectrum experiencing greater upward pressure. The rise in long-term yields remained particularly important for equity valuations, borrowing conditions, and broader financial markets. Elevated US government debt and persistent inflation concerns continued to influence fixed-income sentiment. Overall, bond markets maintained a restrictive backdrop for risk assets, with higher yields increasing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income securities while placing valuation pressure on rate-sensitive and high-duration equities.Key Drivers

• US benchmarks closed lower and finished near session lows as rising bond yields weighed on equity sentiment.
• Energy and chipmakers were relative bright spots, with Micron and Intel advancing despite broader market weakness.
• US long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year reaching its highest level since January 2025 and the 30-year hitting its highest since June 2007.
• The global bond sell-off broadened, with Canadian 30-year yields reaching their highest since 2010 and German long-term yields returning to 2011 levels.
• Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate topped US$65 billion by the end of July, ahead of an expected IPO.
• Stripe agreed to acquire OpenRouter for more than US$7 billion, significantly above the AI platform’s previous valuation.
• Nvidia gained ahead of its Q2 FY27 results, scheduled for 26 August, as investors remained constructive on AI-related demand.
• US-Iran tensions intensified after the 60-day MoU expired without negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief having started.
• Iran warned it could adopt a fully offensive posture and take military action to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic remained severely disrupted, with only three commercial ships transiting over 24 hours versus a pre-war daily average of about 110.
• New US tariffs could affect nearly US$20 billion of Canadian imports from 19 August, including dairy and cement products.
• China’s economic momentum softened in July, as both retail sales and industrial production growth came in below expectations.
• Japan’s Q2 GDP growth missed expectations, weakening the case for another near-term Bank of Japan rate increase.
• Canada’s inflation accelerated in July, driven by sharply higher gasoline prices and increased travel costs.

ASX Company News

• Mercury NZ Limited (ASX: MCY) reported FY26 revenue of NZ$3.22 billion, down 8%, while EBITDAF increased 36% to NZ$1.07 billion and NPAT reached NZ$321 million. Higher hydro generation, new renewable generation and lower operating costs supported earnings. Mercury declared a fully imputed final dividend of NZ$0.17 per share, taking the FY26 ordinary dividend to NZ$0.27 per share. For FY27, management expects EBITDAF of NZ$1.075 billion and a dividend of NZ$0.29 per share.
• Challenger Limited (ASX: CGF) reported FY26 normalised NPAT of AU$468 million, up 3%, while statutory NPAT increased to AU$506 million from AU$192 million. Annuity sales rose 19% to AU$6.2 billion, supporting 10.7% annuity book growth. Challenger declared a fully franked ordinary dividend of AU$0.315 per share and a special dividend of AU$0.015 per share, while expanding its on-market share buy-back program to AU$450 million.
• Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (ASX: RWC) reported FY26 net sales of US$1.31 billion, down 0.7%, while adjusted EBITDA declined 12.8% to US$242.1 million and adjusted NPAT fell 15.3% to US$125.1 million. Reported NPAT was US$6.3 million after US$103.3 million of post-tax one-off charges. Strong cash generation reduced net debt to US$243.4 million. RWC entered a process deed with Brookfield following a non-binding AU$4.75-per-share acquisition proposal, valuing RWC at approximately AU$4.1 billion.
• BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) reported FY26 revenue of US$58.8 billion, up 15%, while attributable profit increased 9% to US$9.8 billion and underlying attributable profit rose 30% to US$13.2 billion. Underlying EBITDA increased 27% to US$32.9 billion, with copper contributing more than half of Group underlying EBITDA for the first time. Net operating cash flow rose 17% to US$21.8 billion and net debt declined to US$8.7 billion. BHP declared a fully franked final dividend of US$0.99 per share.
• SRG Global Limited (ASX: SRG) delivered record FY26 revenue of AU$1.68 billion, up 27%, while underlying EBITDA increased 34% to AU$170.1 million and EBIT(A) rose 41% to AU$131.8 million. EBITDA-to-cash conversion reached 101%, while the company moved to net cash of AU$6.2 million. Work in hand reached a record AU$5.1 billion, up 42%. SRG declared a fully franked second-half dividend of AU$0.04 per share and upgraded FY27 EBITDA guidance to AU$195–205 million.
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH) reported record FY26 revenue of AU$2.6 billion, up 8%, while underlying EBITDA increased 2% to AU$393.8 million and underlying EBIT(A) rose 11% to AU$190.1 million. Statutory NPAT increased 37% to AU$101.1 million, while net debt declined to AU$111.1 million. The order book increased to AU$5.9 billion, while the total FY26 dividend increased 47% to AU$0.022 per share. For FY27, Macmahon expects revenue of AU$2.85–3.05 billion and underlying EBIT(A) of AU$205–225 million.
• Deterra Royalties Limited (ASX: DRR) reported FY26 revenue from continuing operations of AU$236.2 million, up 6%, while statutory NPAT increased 5% to AU$164.2 million and underlying EBITDA rose 6% to AU$222.2 million. Mining Area C benefited from record production and sales, partly offset by lower realised iron ore prices. Net debt declined to AU$132.5 million from AU$270.6 million. The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of AU$0.108 per share, taking total FY26 dividends to AU$0.232 per share.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Bailador Technology Investments Limited (ASX: BTI): Dividend of AU$0.035 per share.
• Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU): Dividend of US$0.65 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 10:30 am AEST – Australia Consumer Confidence: Focus on household sentiment and expectations around spending and broader economic conditions.
• 4:00 pm AEST – UK Unemployment: Labour market data will provide insights into employment conditions and the outlook for Bank of England monetary policy.
• 10:30 pm AEST – US Building Permits and Housing Starts: Housing data will offer signals on construction activity, housing demand and the broader US economic outlook.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicated a weaker open as geopolitical tensions and rising global bond yields weighed on sentiment.
• US Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007.
• Energy and semiconductor stocks were among the few relative bright spots in the US market.
• US-Iran tensions intensified after the 60-day MoU expired without negotiations beginning.
• Strait of Hormuz shipping remained heavily disrupted, increasing concerns over global energy supplies.
• Oil prices strengthened sharply as geopolitical risks increased concerns around potential supply disruptions.
• Gold and silver advanced as investors-maintained demand for defensive assets.
• Bitcoin gained as cryptocurrency markets attracted renewed buying interest.
• Most economists expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in September.
• China’s economic momentum weakened as retail sales and industrial production growth missed expectations.
• Canada’s inflation accelerated, adding to concerns around persistent global price pressures.
• Investors should remain cautious amid elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty around global monetary policy.

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